If I've told ya once, I've told ya a thousand times--fear the turtle!
"If you think this is big, wait until you see the toast. I couldn't even get it through the door!"
--Buck Russell, Uncle Buck
Holy Kobolowski! This tape has more swings than a playground in Hedonism! No sooner did the Minx start to lift her head than, you guessed it, I saw multiple sevens to buy in the SPY and QQQ and size call buyers in tech names. I'm not saying that we can't trade higher (we surely can) but I'm keeping my right hand up. The breadth (while better) has yet to confirm, the semis (while firmer) continue to lag and the selling (while heavy) wasn't exactly "capitulatory." And to think...it's only Tuesday!
There's chatter floating around that the Russians are brokering a deal between Saddam and Dubya and, while I heard it this morning, I didn't think it was substantive. Sure enough, on the heels of that spike, that very same rumor is getting "loud." It just goes to show how reactive this market has become and how one spark can ignite a short squeeze.
I've taken some heat--ok, it was one reader but I get sensitive when I'm sick--regarding my S&P 830 "tight stop." I want to be clear--please feel free to constantly check me, Minyans, as we're all on the same team here. This is an educational community and, as such, we welcome questions! With that said, why did I leave one leg in the fur? Excellent question! I suppose it had part to do with the reasoning in the first paragraph, part to do with the retest of COMP 1320 (past support, present resistance) and part to do with the nature of my positioning (defined risk). As it stands, I'm comfy with this posture as we head into the home stretch.
In any event, that's what I was/am thinking and I'll always give it to you straight. Looking ahead for a moment, we've got HPQ earnings tonight and the Goldman tech fete tomorrow (IBM, TER, ADI, TSM, SUNW, NVLS, MXIM, TXN). In addition, Prudential kicks off their auto conference (auto-mo-bile?), CIBC has a gaming gig, Bear does the retail thing, Merrill plays with the advertisers and Fokker--we still aren't sure exactly what Fokker does!
On the charity auction front, our anonymous bidder, let's call him Mr. Joisy, will end the session as our high bid at $11,000. I've gotta tell you guys, this whole thing is quite humbling! Still, I applaud and encourage philanthropy and if we can use the city of critters to raise money for The Ruby Foundation and Jacob's Cure, that's a wonderful thing. I'm gonna hop (pun intended) to focus on my risk into the bell (before focusing on my pillows and bed).
As always, I hope you guys coined some dough today.
Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at email@example.com.
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