Whispers in the Wind
Let's just get this over with!
How many times must the cannonballs fly
Before they are forever banned
The answer, my friend, is blowing in the wind
The answer is blowing in the wind
It's a busy morning in Minyanville and, as usual, I've spent my early hours perusing charts and reading research. We discussed the European bourses in the opening post but I wanted to quickly circle back to the all-important German DAX. If you've got a Bloomberg terminal, type in DAX (index) GPO. With the overnight weakness, it's broken the October lows and is now dangling at levels last seen in 1996. Oofa!
As I was scanning the globe, British Prime Minister painted the tape saying that the U.S and U.K will delay the 2nd U.N resolution and give Saddam "one further final chance" to disarm. While I'm unsure what, if any, affect this will have on the market, I think the "good cop, bad cop" routine is...interesting. Dubya is basically taking a half step back without losing face. Politics at it's finest!
Sticking with the geopolitical theme for a moment, we must also note what's going on at the America's Cup competition. The BBC reported that participants (and spectators) attending the Cup should be on their toes after cyanide was found in threatening letters sent to the U.S, British and Australian embassies. Let's see, in the last 24 hours, we've now had accounting irregularity, war rhetoric and terror alerts. That's a nasty trifecta.
Research this morning is relatively muted. Lehman was mildly cautious on CSCO, Goldman upped numbers in STX, Morgan upgraded WMB, Warburg upped VRSN and cut numbers TLAB, JP Morgan cut numbers in ASML, and Bear was negative ICST. Meanwhile, Credit Suisse (parent of First Boston) fell in overseas trading after saying that it's "cautious" on the rest of the year.
I removed an appendage from my bear costume into yesterday's close (discipline) and leave one leg in my metaphorical fur. Why, you ask, have I not suited up more aggressively if we've been actively discussing this meltage? Despite my (humble) view, there remain a host of unknowns in our midst and I've got no desire to press. When crafting a risk profile, you must always assume a "worst case" scenario and you should be in a position to handle it. Remember, it's important to allow for a margin of error when trading and never bite off more than you can chew. There's plenty of money to be made by hitting for average rather than swinging for the fences.
Tells today include our mainstay financials (brokers!), semis (stochastics!), retailers (earnings), macro guides (oil, gold, dollar) and internals. I'll also be closely monitoring last week's lows as first support across the board--they're important in more ways than one. The NASDAQ COMP 1320 support looks like it's got issues on the opening and that needs to be mentioned. Finally, I'd be remiss if I didn't direct your attention to Snoop's tremendous opening piece today--it's one of his best yet.
The charity auction continues in full force today and the current high bid belongs to Cary Kahn. The Bears fan from Colorado has bid $8500 for a day in Minyanville and the proceeds will be donated to The Ruby Foundation for Children's Education and Jacob's Cure. I know times are tough, my friends, but it's wonderful to see that the spirit of giving continues despite the climate. On behalf of the critters, we want to thank you from the bottom of our hearts!
See you after the opening. Hit 'em hard!
Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at firstname.lastname@example.org.
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