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Random Thoughts


If I don't hold Friday's low in the S&P, this could get fugly!


  • So lemme get this straight. We'll spend $1 Billion on homeland security but we'll pay Turkey $25 billion (give or take) to use their air fields?

  • Why am I currently keying off of the S&P? It has more actionable levels right now. There are times that the NDX will offer better technical inflection points and when that occurs, I'll key off of the techs.

  • I live in my own little world. But it's OK...they know me here.

  • I still don't follow the logic. We want to invade Iraq because they failed to adhere to the U.N Security council resolution but if we don't like what the U.N Security council says, we're gonna attack Iraq anyway? Don't get me wrong--I support our government's attempt at weeding out terrorists. But if we do what we want, when we want it--regardless of world opinion--we're opening a huge can of worms.

  • How come we choose from just two people to run for president and 50 for Miss America?

  • Despite the attempted liftage earlier, the breadth remained 2:1 negative across the board.

  • Michael Moore takes the lead in the charity auction with at $3500 bid--contingent that Fokker DOESN'T give him a massage!

  • The NDX continues to "do work" around the 200-day moving average...and I continue to ask myself if we NEED to break out from that level before a more meaningful decline occurs.

  • Is the anemic volume indicative of the apathy needed for a bottom? Perhaps...'a' bottom. But "the" bottom is many years away and many points lower (in my humble opinion).

  • Hey Dow theorists--look at the transports! 2008 is the next level there.

  • If you aren't in a position to bid on the auction, fear not. There will be raffle oriented prizes in the months ahead!

  • How do pins work? Example: FNM had a large open interest in the 65 line (calls and puts) and was likely pulled up towards the strike as option players squared their risk. Now that expiration has passed, that magnet no longer exists.

  • I watched three Clint Eastwood movies yesterday: Absolute Power, In the Line of Fire and Unforgiven.

  • Do I still think that financials are the best long-term short? Yup. Is that one trader's humble opinion? Yessiree Bob.

  • Why is it that most nudists are people you don't want to see naked?

  • Again--I'm hearing sell stops reside under S&P 835.

  • There's still too much of a focus on tech.

  • I was a nervous short this weekend. If I WASN'T nervous, that would be cause for concern.

  • In Baltimore, It is a violation of city code to sell chicks or ducklings to a minor within 1 week of the Easter holiday.

  • I haven't mushed the Syracuse hoops team lately but Carmelo Anthony sure can play!

  • GE down on the day.

  • Hey Tony--THANK YOU for offering to pick up the sushi tab for the charity auction. You're such a mensch!

  • I'm thinking of doing some Op-Ed pieces in Minyanville. Potential topics? The power of media on the public psychology.

  • I haven't heard anything out of the Goldman conference. Shocker!

  • In Switzerland, it's illegal to wash your car on Sunday.

  • Out of all my sectors, the SOX stochastics are closest to a SELL signal.

  • The fear of missing is intoxicating--but deadly.
position in s&p, fnm

Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at

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