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Freaky Friday Potpourri


Minyans know that in our era of globalization, a cross seas sneeze could lead to a stateside cough.

  • Minyans know that in our era of globalization, a cross seas sneeze could lead to a stateside cough. In that regard, please see that the Indian stock market needs a Kleenex this morning. The SENSEX got clocked for almost 3% overnight and is now down one percent on the year.

  • I'm not gonna ruin Grey's Anatomy for Minyans who haven't watched it but last night was best of breed. And yes, I understand that the mere mention of Grey's will call my manhood into question but that's alright. There's no crying in baseball but there's no shame in Grey's.

  • Rolling rotations-as opposed to outright migrations-has been the hallmark of this historic bull run. Yesterday was no exception, as master beta money rolled from O-Dog and the homies to ADI and the chip shtick. That move also popped the SOX through a very defined downtrend line.

  • Driller? I don't even…yeah, the OSX also enjoyed some green seas yesterday as the dryin' eyes of a few days before manifested into fresh acne. The group isn't totally out of the woods yet-we're right at the level where February supply has filled in-but the tone and tenor above the 50- and 200-day is bovine friendly.

  • The SENSEX action (-3%, down on the year) isn't a rip cord reason in and of itself but it was one of the early warning signs last May (remember that?). In that regard, keep close tabs on EEM (emerging market spiders) and the TRF (Russia proxy) as trading tells.

  • Through objective eyes, the longer the tape scrapes above S&P 1450 (BKX 119), the higher the odds that we're basing rather than churning.

  • Does anyone else get an uneasy feeling that the Israeli border is gonna "heat up" as Iran looks to create a diversion from their nuclear ambitions? White light and positive vibes to our Mid East Minyans who know all too well the difference between loss and loss.

  • On the road again. Just can't wait to get on the road again...I'm gonna be hopping to the left coast late Tuesday for a 24-hour turnaround to deliver the keynote at TD-Ameritrade's snazzy Disneyland APEX live soiree. Area Minyans-particularly area TD-Ameritrade Minyans-who have an interest in some quick hugs and handshakes should lettuce know.

  • Is it me or is that (potentially positive) reverse dandruff in the metal index?

  • Don't hate the player, hate the game. And according to one of the smartest men I've ever met, the game is getting long in the tooth.

  • I'm still digging Goldenstar (GSS) and SunMicro (SUNW), among others, and I'm looking to add-not lighten-at the right levels. These aren't 'trades,' per se, and I've got "gamma against" (cheap puts in the financials) lest the market gets sloppy and toppy.

  • Vibes from my good friend, the ultra-svelte Snoop Tony Dwyer of FTN Midwest Securities:

    • Based on the monthly returns since 1982, excluding a once in a generation market decline (>50% drop in the major equity indices), there should be a less than 10% chance of having a monthly correction of more than 3%.
    • Since 1982, there have only been 20 months of a greater than 5% correction. Of those nasty months, 12 of them came between '00-'02 – in other words there were only 8 months of a greater than 5% correction excluding those three years. This means only 3.0% of the 265 months between 01/82 – 12/99 and since 12/02 saw a correction of more than 5%.
    • Since 1982, 86% of the months showed a better return than -2%.

We Would Buy Any Correction. There is no question that the equity market is due for some sort of rest. While it feels like there should be a significant pullback, the monthly returns for the S&P 500 since 1982 suggest it should be limited. The historical monthly returns dictate that if the SPX drops 3% during a month, investors should add to exposure and if there is a 5% drop, back up the truck because the odds favor a bounce by the time the month ends. If you expect recession or some sort of unforeseen and unpredictable event, then sell now. You know our position based on our 2007 S&P 500 target of 1,650.

  • And finally, in our continued effort to feature ye faithful who make us smile, the following are "things that scare me" from Minyan G-Man…

    • Carnies, Circus know nomads...

    • I ate at Taco Bell last night...

    • More negative media regarding Iran's nukes, a troop buildup, and another aircraft carrier in the neighborhood...

    • The Global dependence on the industrialization of China, and what we DON'T know about their politics and economics...

    • The markets drowning in the 13% annual M3 growth...what happens when the faucet is turned off, and as the Fed wants to stop reporting this number, when will we know?

    • Commercial Paper trading a whisker above the people who print money, my Uncle Sammy.

    • My local Sushi restaurant went out of business over the weekend...


Position in sunw, gss, metals, financials

Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at

The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.

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