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Random Thoughts


Hump? What Hump?


  • We're going streaking! Everybody's doing it! Who's with me? Come on!

  • If you never borrow money, interest will always work for you and not against you. You will also have peace of mind and be able to live through the bear markets and business recessions that occur in most nations about twice every 10 years." Sir John Templeton

  • Please keep in mind, Minyans, the FOMC minutes will be released at 2:00 EST. This event created quite the stir last month and lotsa traders are already chatting up its release. Please keep in on ye radar and factor it into your risk profile.

  • When the tape trades "S's over N's" (as it is today), I tend to scan the former for longs (if I think Snapper is lurking) and the latter for shorts (if I sense a trap door).

  • Giggles, Googles and Bernie.

  • DJIA 10,600 (former acne and uptrend from October lows) and NDX 1474 (200-day) are support levels. S&P 1163? That's not support--that's a massive line in the technical sand.

  • Koko Puffs?

  • The semis held (thus far) at the dual 50- and 200-day support of SOX 419ish.

  • Riddle me this? How many of corporate America's CEO's are "breathing a sigh of relief" that the CPI wasn't as saucy as the PPI? Can anyone say "margin contractions?

  • Buy Kraft and short telecom on a pairs trade?

  • A conundrum of a different sort.

  • A cure for the "honey do" relationship?

  • Nazz breadth mitigating a bit (3:2 positive) but the internals have been "game on" all session.

  • Carrie Trades.

  • Citi (C) seemed to be teetering a bit but hung tough. Ditto Fannie (FNM), Kla-Tencor (KLAC) and the homies.

  • I just filled out the line-up cards for MIM2:Return to the Butte and I gotta say....this thing is gonna be a monster!

  • Nice feel on Silver by the talented Mr. McGuirk. Ditto for Scotto's Newmont (NEM) complexity vibe.

  • Despite the fright, we saw very few index put buyers (hedgers) yesterday.

  • Oklahoma State Sen. Frank Shurden has proposed legislation to bring back the "sport" of cockfighting, which the state outlawed in 2002. To appease critics, Shurden, apparently serious, suggested that the roosters wear tiny boxing gloves instead of the razor cleats on their legs and also wear electronic-sensitive vests in order to record hits so as to non-lethally determine the winner of a match. (Chicago Tribune)

  • It's gotta be tough being an Alaskan plumber!

  • "One more new low in the RTY, DOW, SPX and NYSE will complete a full impulse wave off last week's peaks which should lead to a bounce for a few sessions before more downside evolves. The NDX has already fulfilled the necessary conditions to see such a counter-trend bounce. It too should last a few sessions and lead to further downside. This counter-trend bounce should last a few sessions and, if our larger bearish call is correect, lead to heavy selling over the next several weeks. As always, not advice--just sharing my eyes as they relate to the indicators I assimilate." Scott Reamer with a complexity update on the Buzz.

  • Snaps to Bank of America strategist (and former Morgan colleague) Tom McManus for his prescient bond bail last week. Keeping with the hot hand (and no mush intended), my sales coverage at BofA offered the following tidbit: "Energy composes just 8.4% of S&P 500 now, up from ~7% a year ago, and it was >3x this in the early '80s. When investors say they're "overweight Energy," Tom McManus thinks most of them are perhaps 50-100bps overweight. Tom thinks investors are seeing how much this is hurting their portfolios and are facing more pressure to raise their Energy weightings." This is entirely consistent with what many of us have been saying in the 'Ville for over a year--there is a sea change in leadership unfolding before our eyes. While there will be hiccups along the way (some painful), I think we're still in the early innings of this multi-year secular shift. Energy and metals over tech and financial. See it, please, and understand that it's not a "trade for today."

  • Dollar plays?

  • The weekly investor's intelligence figures show a slightly mitigated Matador Crowd (54.1% vs. 56.6%) and a static Red Dye contingent (21.4% vs. 21.2%).

  • "I'm not a snob. Ask anybody. Well, anybody who matters." -- Rock star Simon LeBon of Duran Duran

  • Soros and dollar diversification.

  • Anecdotal evidence of the secular trend of online advertising as Madison Avenue looks for alternative channels. And yes, for many old line companies, the web is still considered fertile ground. I continue to believe that video games are the next-gen advertising platform (via product placement and content incorporation).
  • Gold and DJIA--a proper perspective.

  • "Get your feet off my desk, get out of here, you stink and we're not going to buy your product." -- Joe Keenan, president of Atari (ATAR), to Apple (AAPL) founders Steve Jobs and Steve Wozniak in 1976 - after they offered Atari licensing rights for their new personal computer.

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