Advanced Technical Analysis - NYA
Note: the following analysis is formulated as an assimilation of Fibonacci, DeMark, Elliott Wave and other technical indicators. It is offered as education and not intended as advice in any way.
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We're updating our note on the NYSE index (NYA ticker, NYC ticker for the ETF). In our last note we highlighted this index to make a few points: "(1) because, like the RTY, NDX, SPX, and INDU, the NYSE index is suggesting that a major bearish trend is potentially fast approaching and (2) the Fibonacci relationships and pattern dynamics of this index are particularly clear and, as a result, provide a very nice example of the usefulness of this type of technical analysis."
We had identified two high probability Fibonacci price targets and one Fibonacci time target for a potential trend exhaustion and reversal to a bearish trend: 7322/23 and 7410-60 sometime the week of February 14th. Of those two price possibilities we noted: "Based on the Fibonacci time window we also identified (this week) as well as the short term charts, we believe that the lower 7323 target is the more likely to cap prices and lead to a major bear market decline for this index." Indeed, on February 17th, the NYA peaked at 7317.79, 0.06% from our 7322/23 target and has, so far declined in what looks like a developing impulsive pattern (meaning the recent top might indeed be THE top we were looking for). In doing so, the NYA may have fulfilled the 'order' that the market seeks from several different time scales: weekly, daily, hourly, 13 minute, and 5 minute time spans. This 'scale invariance' is a hallmark of complex systems and a central part of our complexity models for asset price prediction.
In our last note we suggested the aggressive interpretation of the analysis suggested a top in the the ETF (NYC) once the index reached 7320. Since it fell short by 2 points, the next best entry setup will be once we can identify a complete minute degree 5 waves down from the recent peak (such a 5 waves down looks like it needs one more up-down sequence to complete.). Once this minute degree 5 develops, we will expect a counter-trend bounce for a few sessions to develop to position for further weakness, with trade moving thru 7317 forcing us to the side. For now however, the message of the NYA is more important than the opportunity it is giving (the NYC ETF is fairly illiquid). And that message is that the markets are signaling that a potentially major bearish trend is afoot for ALL the indices. As long as the recent peaks in the NYA are not exceeded and so long as the moves down remain impulsive and the moves up remain corrective (and thus counter-trend), we will favor the bearish interpretation of the NYSE index.
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