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Bullish Bias for Monday



Since this is my first post, I wanted to first say how honored I am to be a part of the Minyanville team. Occasionally, I'll throw out some fun facts and stats based on historical patterns. I'm always looking at the daily and weekly charts of the SP and ND futures to find some clues for the next day's activity. It's all about "edge" and if patterns can give us that, then maybe we'll get an idea of the next day's close. It goes without saying that past performance is no indicator of future results and Minyanville is never about advice. But a little "insight" based on the past is surely better than "no-sight."

Today's queries were based on the most recent four day pattern. Last Tuesday, the SPH made a new high close and then posted three consecutive down days. On its own, those dynamics don't give us much edge. However, the three lower closes were all below the prior day's LOW. Following a 100 day high close, this is rare. In fact, there have only been 10 occurrences and the next day's close was higher in 7 of the 10 with the most recent result in December 1999. Moreover, the next day's high was positive in all 10 occurrences by an average of +.98%. Overall, this gives the day a bullish bias.

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