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Random Thoughts

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Bad feeds from NASDAQ are making today a bit saucier than usual!

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  • Ro-Paul and his Texas two-step.

  • Excuse me sir, but how much horsepower does this car have?

  • I heard the single best Jerry Garcia Band bootleg ever this past weekend. Shining Star, some Stones, Blues Brothers, a little Smokey Robinson...simply fantastic.

  • "Sometimes the world looks more complicated than it probably is. From the technical side, trends within the market are up, and sentiment has backed off the extreme readings of a few months ago. The strongest trends are in Energy and Utilities, but importantly they have some of the smallest weightings in the SPX. Conversely, one of the weakest trends is in Technology, yet the weighting within the market continues to make it an important consideration. The tipping point may come from a neglected group with a relatively large weighting which is Healthcare. We have been believers that the group will have a good year in 2005 regardless of large-cap Pharma, but more interestingly the technical evidence continues to improve with the recent acceleration out of the group last week." Lehman's aptly named chartist Jeff DeGraaf.

  • Life lesson #1: Never let your girlfriend tie you up after you break up with her.

  • What's next, metaphorical critters?

  • S&P group breadth (net advancing groups; there are 113 S&P groups) peaked on February 4 and has now declined for two straight weeks. We think it's appropriate to become more cautious because the deteriorating weekly group breadth is a precursor for further deterioration going forward or, at the very least, it's going to get us more aggressive looking for short-sale candidates." Uber-Minyan John Roque of Natexis Bleichroeder.

  • Talk about a frisky buffet!

  • While eating breakfast with my grandmother "the morning after" our casino excitement, a bird flew up to our outside table and gave her a wink. She looked at me and said "that was your grandfather." I have no doubt it was.

  • Looking good, Billy Ray!

  • Citing a number of UK industry sources, GamesIndustry reports that NWS is set to acquire Eidos. Note that there has been speculation previously that NWS might target ATVI or ERTS, after NWS's COO Peter Chernin mentioned interest in a gaming acquisition, and specifally mentioned those companies during a 1/12 conference presentation. I share this as a follow-up to Friday's column discussing the evolution of media trends.

  • And, just in case you don't "see" it yet, Mr. Murdoch may lend some credibility to the cause (I found this article over the weekend).

  • The question isn't what the Fed's agenda is--they'll print as many dollars as necessary to avoid deflation--it's how long the financial mechanism will support that dynamic. To quote Jeff "as good as it gets" Saut of Raymond James, "With Mr. Bernanke at the helm of the Economic Advisors, and then potentially at the Fed, the geometric growth of our money supply looks pretty assured for the foreseeable future."

  • Ice Capades?

  • Don't get saucy with me, Béarnaise!

  • Just another day in Minyanville.

  • Front month crude futures (+4%) are above $50 for the first time since November.

  • Breadth still isn't giving Hoofy the wink but certain action has traction (energy, semis, metals, pharma)

  • Sometimes I see things too early (Fannie, Elmer) while other times it's just in the nick of time (weekend with the Bahama mama).

  • Updating my ERICY post from Friday given the action today. The daily chart shows the potential for a very large (bullish) triangle formation having formed in a corrective move off the peaks from at least the Oct peaks. The longer term implications of this pattern are ultimately bearish (many months from now), but the shorter term ones are bullish to new annual highs (and conditional elements like short interest and put/call ratios are suggestive of same). Again, as long as the $28.01 lows are not taken out, as our Friday note suggested, we will remain bullish ERICY.

  • While I'm less active (trading and lifestyle) than I used to be, my "longer-term situations" are primarily situated in the energy patch.

  • Rumors that Dubya was wearing a tie-dye, Birkenstocks and hemp shorts are thus far unconfirmed.

  • And you wonder why the Orange are so popular in Syracuse?

  • Smith Barney just hired our friends at Dorsey Wright & Associates to provide technical research firmwide.

    R.P.
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