Ol' Boo Eyes
Boys will be boys!
Love and marriage, love and marriage
Go together like a horse and carriage
This I tell you brother
You can't have one without the other
Fly me to the moon, Boo, and while you're at it, fly Bruce Lulla a brand new Minyanville tee! Uncle Brucey was the first Minyan to correctly guess that my grandparents were married for 59 wonderful years. Think about that for a minute--59 years! That's more than insane...it's inspirational!
Alright--let's talk tape. There are many ways to skin a Minx and while I sensed the (earlier) panic selling was an opportunity (on the long side), playing it net long would have been inconsistent with my current view. I can deal with being wrong--it happens to the best of us. However, if I chose to dance with Hoofy and the market continued to slide, I would have a hard time justifying WHY I lost money. Instead, I opted to use the weakness as an opportunity to sell some puts and when the market reversed higher, I reinitiated those positions.
Why didn't I slip another leg into my metaphorical bear imagery? I'll be honest--I had the costume in my hand and my foot was on it's way in. However, my first appendage add wasn't far from these levels and while I've been actively trading around my exposure, I don't want to do too much at one level. That, my friends, would be overtrading and I self-checked myself before pulling the trigger.
I've got a five day NDX chart up and I've drawn a line from noon yesterday through today's highs. That's serving as my first resistance area while the 200-day moving average (1017) is a more important area. For the S&P, 850-855 remains troublesome while 870 is imposing. Finally, BKX 725 is a battle and I continue to feel that the financials are a huge tell.
What's my best guess into the end of the day? It's a hard call and I'm not sure I have an edge in gaming it. The breadth/bank duopoly is positive, the macro influences are quiet, there MAY still be trapped shorts and it's expiration. My thesis, however, remains unchanged and as long as we drift around under S&P 870, I wanna fade (read: sell) rallies. Is that the right strategy? I don't know. Is it my honest assessment at this point in time? Absolutely.
Circling back to some Minyan news, I FINALLY got the new Daisy prototype doll (that we'll eventually use to mold our action figures) and the boyz from Puglisi can't stop coming in to take a look! I'm warning you right now--if ANYTHING happens to this doll, I'm gonna come with guns a blazing Scotto! If you're so fixated on our resident Vixen, download an icon for your Instant Messenger--but leave the doll alone!
As always, I hope this finds you well.
Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at email@example.com.
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