Buzz Bits: Dow and Nasdaq End Higher
Your daily Buzz & Banter highlights...
Spin Cycle, USA - Todd Harrison - 3:14 PM
Alrightee then, as I break from one meeting, prep for another and eyeball a nutty post-bell strut, I'm trying against trying to focus on the tape. Thing is, ever since T-Woo blasted Mandy, I haven't been able to get her out of my head.
Gimme bamboo under my fingernails, water-board torture, death by Shmoopie... anything except Barry Manilow! Some deep breath vibes:
- As if there was any doubt, the Fed is officially all over the place. The statement that they see growth "accelerating somewhat" in 2009 and 2010 is, well, misplaced. They didn't see the subprime contagion while it was staring them in the face and to this day, resist the notion of recession. How the heck are we supposed to trust 'em out a few years?
- I just said to Pep "I've got a funky feeling in my stomach about this tape. Either that or I ate a bad anchovy." I'm not sure what it means but I thought I would share. Between that and my inability to sleep last night (up at 2, 3, 4, and 5 for good...), something feels like it's coming down the pipe.
- Not that I'm huge here, triceps aside. I've got a few 'situations' on the long side and I nibbled on a handful of financial puts against them. If the last few weeks have demonstrated anything it's that patience and pure eyes allow for some strong jabs and safe sleeps.
- Bada Bing, Bada Boom. Crude $100. Gold $1000. What does it say that equities aren't lifting in kind? Perhaps a decoupling of a different sort? Not sure, but I know this--it's getting interesting and interestinger.
- Oh my, time for my 3pm. Fare ye well into the dwell and hit 'em where they ain't.
Anatomy of a Good Chart - Cody Tafel - 2:41 PM
For those of you who have followed me, you know I have been bullish on the Japanese yen for a while. I think this would be a good time to look at what is starting to be a great chart, and also a good near term buying opportunity.
First, take notice of the clear "lower left to upper right" trend that has emerged since the beginning of the credit crisis last summer. We are seeing higher highs and higher lows forming a solid uptrend. Trendline support comes in around the 0.90 level, which happens to coincide with the high of last August (0.8965, to be exact).
Second, notice how the pullback in December of 2007 found support in the 0.88-0.90 range which validates this level as good support. From the December lows near 0.88 the Yen has rocketed higher before finding resistance at the 0.95 level.
Finally, check out the nice bullish pennant we have forming back into the 50 day moving average and previous November highs which should offer solid support near the 0.92 level. If we do start to hold in here at these levels the pennant continuation pattern would project to 1.00 for the Japanese Yen Futures. Breaking 0.92 could lead to a test of the trendline near 0.90, but all of that weakness would still be in the context of a larger uptrend. Keep a close eye on the Yen as it has proved to be a great hedge for a continuing credit crisis, which should prove to be one of the major themes for 2008.
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Dazed and Confused - Jeff Macke - 1:05 PM
Hello from New York where I'm going Einstein-Looney trying to develop a unifying theory between the bankruptcies, beats and misses and what they all mean to the consumer. What do I mean? This:
- Sharper Image (SHRP) goes Chapter 11, marking a mercy-killing for Harry and Sally's favorite retailer. As I've long said, the chain should simply become a spa and charge customers rental fees for sitting in the massage chairs. On the other hand...
- Jack In the Box (JBX) is popping higher like some... um... imaginary toy of some sort that pops up in a surprising manner at unexpected moments. There's a razor thin line between casual dining (dead stocks) and fast food (not terrible).
- Nutrisystems (NTRI) continues to gap down in fitful spasms as the mail-order food fad goes the way of no-carbs, and nothing-but-shakes. As it turns out "not eating" is a cheaper diet plan. But that doesn't explain...
- Hormel (HRL) which is defying slow-down logic by doing well selling spam and stew.
- Garmin (GRM) gapping lower on the realization that we all know where we are (here) and where we're going (into a recession).
I'm baffled, Minyans, but at least I have flat-rate cell phone billing on the horizon (an inevitability currently crushing the stocks of Verizon (VZ), AT&T (T) and anyone else who sells cell dialtones).
Tradable Low in Place for Financials - Michael Paulenoff - 12:04 PM
Judging by the improving technical condition of some of the members of the Financial Select Sector SPDR (XLF), such as Bank of America (BAC), Citigroup (C), AIG (AIG), Goldman Sachs (GS), and Morgan Stanley (MS), perhaps this morning's low at 26.20 will suffice as the third such low of a near-term triple bottom completion of the pullback off of the Feb 1 high at 30.00?
If that proves to be accurate, then confirmation that a significant corrective low has been established will come only upon a hurdle of the key Feb down trendline resistance now at 27.00. Until then, I only have indications that a tradable low is in place.
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