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Random Thoughts

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Trade, don't press. And breathe. Always breathe.

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  • Greetings after a long weekend in...chilly NYC? Yeah, my flight was one of the many casualties of the East Coast storm. It wouldn't have been as bad if they didn't wait nine hours before canceling the flight.

  • As many Minyans know, I pared my exposure to 'bare bones' in the last week or so, including many of my metal faves. Perhaps the toughest pill to swallow was Goldenstar (GSS) which was a shadow of its former self by the time it eyeballed $4. The little yellow stud opened 10% lower today (news, including a small offering) and I nibbled anew on this name. Not advice, naturally, just sharing the process. In a perfect world, this pup will retest acne support at $3.30 and, perhaps, $3, where I'll be much more aggressive.

  • To read a paper, or watch a tube or listen to the radio, it's Utopia out there. Heck, the last time Goldilocks was this "obvious," Britney had a full head of hair and Hoofy didn't have a care.

  • Step 13? Find a hobby.

  • Such as March Madness.

  • Crude is getting drilled (-3%) and the drillers are following suit as OSX 200 fades into the rear-view.

  • In fact, as Hoofy puts on his bravest equity face, please note the crimson slippage in the commodity arena. Commodities as a whole are taking it on the chin. Heating oil is off 3.5%, copper is 2.5% to the red and heck, even gold is off a baker's dozen (2%).

  • You can bet that the popular press will point to this slippage as a precursor to lower input prices and a boon to the consumer. Minyans know better or, shall I say, they know enough to look at both sides of the ride. Through the lens of "asset class deflation vs. dollar devaluation," a case can be made that lower commodities will lead to similar slippage in equities.

  • "I continue to look for a sloppy market, now that the oversold rally is most likely over, and a better second half of the year. So long as 10's don't take out the important 5.25%-5.30% area. An easy Fed and lower rates should be expected late in 2007..." Minyanville Bond Guru Bennet Sedacca on today's Buzz.

  • I found the article on Robert L. Johnson in Sunday's New York Times fascinating on a few different levels.

  • That Google gap, for those watching at home, springs to life under $453.

  • Reversal of fortune? Speaking of Google, the net giant is basically flat for the year while its lil' sister Yahoo! is up 24% YTD.

  • A breach of S&P 1450, BKX 119 or EEM 116ish will be the first sign that further dippage may be in the cards.

  • President Logan? I didn't see that one coming.

  • Trade, don't press. And breathe. Always breathe.


R.P.

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Position in gss, metals, financials
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