A Morning Fracas
How does FNM's CEO know this isn't a housing bubble? Did ANY tech CEO think it was a tech bubble?
It's a beautiful day in the city of critters and as I was walking towards my building, a very concerned Fokker was anxiously pacing the streets. "Boss!" he screamed as I approached, "Uh...I'm not quite sure how to tell you this, but the Menagerie won't let me into the office!" With the Journal in one hand and my hazelnut coffee in the other, I walked past my eager assistant (staring straight ahead) and officially inducted him into the "pay no mind" club.
When I got upstairs, my office door was closed and I could hear a rather heated argument taking place. After repeated knocks, the door slowly opened and Daisy, with a concerned look on her face, said "Please come back in a half hour." As she was about to close the door, I pushed my way in and said "I don't think so Daisy--my name aint Fokker and you can't push me around. These are my digs---and I'm coming in!"
As I walked inside, I could tell that there was a "situation." Boo was holding my Bernie Williams baseball bat, Hoofy was wearing my Muhammad Ali boxing gloves, Snapper had my Oakland Raider football helmet on, Sammy was hanging from the light fixture--and you could cut the tension with a knife.
"What in the wild, wild world of sports is going on here?" I yelled. The critters turned, looked at me and, before I could continue, Hoofy interrupted me. "I'm tired of this schnitz! Always living in denial," he barked, "look at the news flow--Europe is higher across the board, DRAM's were up huge last night, Merrill upgraded the Semis, Morgan upped GDT and CEPH, Lehman upgraded HAS...what the heck does a bull need to do to get some respect around here?!?"
Before I could answer, Boo chimed in "SHOCKER, he wants respect NOW, after a 45 handle S&P rally from the lows!" He turned and shot Hoofs a look. "The dollar is still fragile, Goldman was cautious on tech, the economic numbers sucked, Monty downgraded Q to a sell, Bear was negative on NT and, duh, the world still has issues! Besides, I've got Toddo in my camp and he's bearish too so, pardon my French but....eat me!"
I tried to cover Boo's mouth before he got those last two words out but I was a step slow. "Listen guys, you ALL need to relax--emotion is only gonna screw up your game plan. I know it's hard...I actually spent the better part of last night going through the crosscurrents and trying to craft a plan. I was (am) a little torn--at first, I wanted to "stop out" my bear appendage if we broke through Monday's highs. Then I thought, hmm...there's traunched resistance from here to S&P 870 and my (humble) belief is that this latest lift is a relief rally (before a resumption of the Shimmy sell-off). As such, I may opt to add more appendages into my bear costume on further strength."
"You've got to be careful," said Sammy, "and read your first piece this morning. Discipline over conviction. High percentage trades. Tactical strategy. Make sure that, before you deploy your capital, you self-check yourself." He slithered over to Boo and took the bat out of his hand. "It's more important to walk safe than it is to walk tall and carry a big stick."
I nodded my head in agreement. "One day at a time, my friends...and on THIS day, I'll be watching those semis to see if a SECOND upgrade in as many days can rally the group. Obviously, the financials are also telling as they're hangin' around that BKX 725 resistance level again. Peripheral guides include telecom, the dollar (slippy), gold.com, our internals and the levels. I'll also be keying off Tony, who's on CNNfn this morning from 9:30 till 11:30 with that Minxy Minx Rhonda."
"Yeah, she's spicy! What levels are those again, Toddo?" asked Snapper. "Glad you asked," I said. "S&P 850-855 remains a zone of contention and it's the primary resistance between here and S&P 870. On the downside, use S&P 835 as a support. For the techs, NDX 1020 and 1040 are both resistance levels while NDX 990 and 970 are support. Also remember that, with expiration tomorrow, the bowlers will be out looking for pins (in the S&P) and IF we manage to migrate away from S&P 850, the magnets (either way) may start to pull the tape."
At that moment, Fokker flew into the room, threw his arms up and screamed "STOP THE MADNESS!!" There was a moment of uncomfortable silence as the kid stood there (sweating) with his hands in the air. I looked at Boo...he looked at Daisy...she looked at Snapper...he looked at Sammy...he looked at Hoofs and then we all looked at Fokker--and broke out in hysterical laughter. There's nothing like a little levity to break the stress and, once again, Greg RN turned the trick. I walked up to him, smiled, and said "Let's go Tex, we've got work to do." The critters filed out of the office, I strapped myself into my turret and we prepared ourselves for another day in Minyanville. It promises to be another nutty one.
See you after the opening--hit 'em hard today!
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