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Fair and Balanced Randoms


And your point is?

  • According to the latest missives from MS Howells, the corporate bond market continues to rock. I tend to agree with Prof. Succo that bond traders are mispricing risk, but that's not going to prevent fat (and perhaps stupid) buy-outs and buy-backs that could put a serious dent in Boo's plans.

  • Philadelphia Housing Idx. (HGX) 260 is the 200 day moving average.

  • M/I Homes (MHO) is up 12% today on earnings (thank Minyan VL for the eyes). What's the good news there? Nothing really, but the stock was trading at 1x book before the report, and that's cheap even for this bear. Compare that to Toll Bros. (TOL) or Beazer Homes (BZH), both of which still trade at about 2x book. For the role of book value when gaming the homies please see this.

  • Whole Foods (WFMI) has been trading heavy for many days now. It will give the lay of its land on Feb. 8. I am on Boo's bandwagon for this one (shocking!!!), but I have used the weakness to buy some calls . . .just in case.

  • Amazon (AMZN) and Electronic Arts (ERTS) are on deck tonight. After Ebay (EBAY), Yahoo (YHOO), and Google (GOOG), taking the dark side of AMZN may seem almost too obvious. But the stock is still above the November gap generated by the fundamentally sound pig piling that comes with being added to the S&P 500 (SPX). As a function of where it "sits" I still think there is risk. The opposite may be the case for ERTS, which has already given us the bad news for this Q and has many non-believers. Will guidance be lousy? Maybe. Is it in the stock? We'll know manana for sure.

  • For "technically inclined Minyans" Inco (N) is edging back to the break-out level on light volume.

  • I've got two dozen stocks that I like on my "Buy Watch" list. None of them are remotely close to the prices where I'm gonna love them.

  • With the housing rental market tightening up, and energy prices falling, does heli-Ben have to change the CPI housing component (rental equivalent cost minus energy expenditures) to avoid an inflation scare?

  • Phelps Dodge (PD) warned badly on 1/10. It reported yesterday and this morning the stock was trading $30 higher than where it was after it warned. Analyze that!
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Positions in HGX, TOL, BZH, N, SPX, AMZN, ERTS, WFMI
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