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Random Thoughts


Elmer's Zoo - 2:15pmET

  • Critter competition?

  • Overheard at Kochevar's in Crested Butte during the first Minyans in the Mountains: Patron 1: "Who are all these people? Patron 2: "Oh, they're the Minyans--they're a good bunch"

  • Mini-Minyan Mailbag: "In the good old days, corporations used their "recovery" cash flow for new investment in equipment and infrastructure. That investment begat new streams of income which led to increased hiring and corporate profits---a virtuous, repeating cycle. Today the "recovery" cash is channeled primarily into stock buybacks and corporate buyouts while most new hiring is outsourced overseas. This recovery has been solely reliant on the backs of temporary monetary and fiscal stimulus and foreign lending. Therefore, going forward one should not expect to see the virtuous cycle that was synonymous with all previous recoveries. Wall Street (and Main Street) has not yet recognized this difference and, thus, it's yet to be discounted in stock prices. IMO,Minyan WB"

  • Mini-Minyan Mailbag response from Sir Succo (on the Buzz): "This exactly echoes my sentiments. Another way to put it is that monetary policy should expand the money supply to provide liquidity for the financing of productive assets. We have been in a cycle of excess liquidity that has had the affect of driving up nominal asset prices and debt. This eventually will result in one large correction instead of smaller
    ones along the way."

  • Will somebody please turn those machines back on?

  • On a normal day, I would note the stealth traction in Goldman (GS) and Citi (C) as trading tells. As this is a tale of two tapes (with 2:15 being the inflection point), I'm not sure how much it matters.

  • Ruby always taught me that if the dealer puts chips in front of you, take them first and ask questions later.

  • I don't know if Elmer drops his "measured" vernacular but it's worth noting that he speaks to congress later this month. If he intends to augment his verbal posture, that might be his venue of choice.

  • From the cradle to the grave....

  • As a reminder, we are told that Lowry's issued a "conventional short-term buy signal" as of yesterday's close.

  • Do the metals have additional downside? Quite possibly. Do I think they'll be higher five to ten years out? Most probably.

  • I'm not sure I've read a financial scribe anywhere who nailed the underlying trends (M&A, buybacks, overall tone) better than Brian Reynolds.

  • Virtual beer here?

  • Vibes from a chubby critter.

  • Crude is marginally higher (non-event) on the heels of this morning's inventory data.

  • There's nothing wrong with quiet days...unless, of course, you're long volatility. The VXO (-1.6%) is edging ever-so-closer to the December (8-year) lows. And no, it won't matter until it does.

  • Meehan coulda used these in college.

  • Hoofy and Boo (not to mention Minyanville's legal team) will be following this story with great interest.

  • Tells to watch into the Fed? Brokers (creepin'), breadth (NYSE skewed positive), semis (laggy semicaps) and the dollar (marginally higher).

  • Speaking of the greenback (+ 30 bips), it's quietly eyeing DXY 84 again.

  • I will remind you to put limits on your orders (particularly around the announcement) as it'll get thin and whippy in Elmer's Zoo.

  • 2005 is shaping up as the year of the critter! You'll soon see why I've been so jammy as we map out the Minyan vision and step through the looking glass. It's important to me that YOU share in the excitement of this journey as we're all gonna get there together. It's easy to get caught in the trap of setting, achieving and resetting goals and never fully appreciate the moment. Just remember, my friends--by the time you get to where you want to be, the trip will have already ended.

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