By Todd Harrison Feb 02, 2004 1:53 pm
Wasabi BKX 1000!
I woke up a feeling mean
Went down to play the slot machine
The wheels turned round and the letters read
Better head back to Tennessee, Jed
The afternoon wiggle has started to giggle as the flickering ticks begin to jiggle. Snapper, wearing a Tom Brady jersey, just sauntered by and yelled "I'm going to Bridgetville!" While he's clearly got the ball, I told our resident tortoise not to get cocky. The bears have had plenty of practice on defense and may have a blitz up their sleeve. Let's go to the video tape, Minyans, so we can get home in time for the halftime show.
The biotechs never blinked today and that helped buoy the tape in the face of the early sell pressure. The breadth has begrudgingly bounced (better in the S's) and while it's better than it was, there's plenty of time on the clock (for a potential turn). This latest lift has brought the banks back to the brink (BKX 1000) and the semis still seem somewhat soft. In short, there are reasons for optimism (Cisco (CSCO:NASD), pharma) but ample cause remains for pause.
We've spoken about whether this is a cutesy correction or something with a bit more meat. The first "failure" at S&P 1150 was prolly the "easy" trade, in hindsight, and the more difficult decisions lie ahead. In addition to the Chambo shuffle (tomorrow) and the Friday employment data, electoral crosscurrents and internal (negative) divergences are adding grist to the mill. And, of course, all of this must be weighed against the prevailing psychology (dip shtick) and its lopsided hop.
It remains my humble view (not advice) that rallies are made to be sold. I don't know if that's today's business (it may be) and, obviously, risk profiles and time horizons are unique for each Minyan. A convincing move through NDX 1515 (with a semiconductor stochastic buy signal) might be ample fuel for Hoofy's rule. We'll take that step when it arrives, however, and until then, I wanna fade 'em like a pair of Levi's.
Finally, in a quick housekeeping issue, I'm jugglin' lotsa meetings this week and will do my best to keep you abreast (sorry). I'm certain that the new format (two weeks!) will lend itself nicely to quicker, more time sensitive trading issues. It was created, quite frankly, with that in mind and in the vein of a more dynamic, real-time educational process. In the time being, please bear with us as we scurry to get it done. Thanks!
As always, I hope this finds you well.
position in qqq
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