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Random Thoughts


The biotechs are bailing me out so far...


  • I did a fair amount of reading over the weekend and virtually every analysis identifies structural issues but NONE of them thought it was this year's business. Clear sailing or rope-a-dope?

  • Total debt remains more than 300% of GDP.

  • I had AFC "9" and NFC "2" in my office grid (it was 29-22 Pats after the 2-pt. conversion). Ugh.

  • Be wary of playing Cisco (CSCO:NASD) through the option market. Volatility levels are pumped (fat).

  • Every time I hear Avici Systems (AVCI:NASD), I think of spicy raw fish served in a martini glass.

  • General Motors (GM:NYSE) equity is under pressure and traders are starting to chat up the "widening" of their CDS (credit default swaps). That's weighing on the cyclicals and seeping into the collective mindset.

  • Gold is doing the tug-o-war at $400.

  • 6% of Americans call in sick after Super Bowl Sunday

  • SOX stochastics are edging into "buy territory" (first time since early December) but have yet to "cross" (buy signal).

  • Discussing the political climate is unavoidable during an election year so understand that my intent is to unearth the market implications. For instance, the recent Newsweek poll actually has Kerry ahead of Bush. As virtually nobody gave the Dems a fighting chance, that specter of "uncertainty" may roil the tape at a point.

  • The market in a nutshell? The first run at S&P 1150 was destined to retreat (particularly from an overbought state). The question now becomes whether she's readying for another upside assault (the semis have pulled back almost 10%) or if the dip buying (that's created the lopsided sentiment) will finally trap the bulls.

  • Good perspective.

  • I, for one, am glad that Silvia Vadvah wasn't performing at the Super Bowl halftime show.

  • Oh by the way, the biotech acne is still in play.

  • Just be yourself, sir. No matter what happens, they can't take that away from you.

  • The Panthers had a player named "Buckner." That had to scare the bean towners.

  • If you're "overwriting" your equity positions (read:selling calls against the underlying stock), your risk profile is the same as being naked short a put.

  • The Dow Jones "has" to hold 10,415 on a closing basis (triple bottom).

  • In a perverse way, the Cisco weakness (CSCO:NASD) is more bullish than bearish into earnings.

  • Silver, down another 3%, is hugging $6.

  • After stopping for drinks at an illegal bar, a Zimbabwean bus driver found that the 20 mental patients he was supposed to be transporting from Harare to Beltway had escaped. Not wanting to admit his incompetence, the driver went to a nearby bus stop and offered everyone waiting there a free ride. He then delivered the passengers to the mental hospital, telling the staff that the patients were very excitable and prone to bizarre fantasies. The deception wasn't discovered for three days.

  • Taser International (TASR:NASD)--the poster child of nuttiness-reports after today's close.

  • The tape has adopted a firmer tone but thus far, breadth has yet to confirm.

  • NDX 1515 (and S&P 1140) remains the nearest term resistance.

  • Last week, there were $600 million of insider sales and $500,000 of insider buys. That's 1200 to 1.

  • "We contend that for a nation to try to tax itself into prosperity is like a man standing in a bucket and trying to lift himself up by the handle." --Winston Churchill

  • The cyclical index (CYC) is down for the year. So are the trannies (by 4%).

  • I can't wait for Buzz and Banter. Much quicker turnover in the market thoughts department.

  • Have you downloaded your Minyanville icon?

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Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at

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