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Duck Season!


Hey pea shooter--are you gonna dress up like Little Bo Peep next?


A poacher who shoots at rabbits may scare big game away.
--Lawrence Jamieson, Dirty Rotten Scoundrels

Alright, this is getting silly. Boo just bellied up to my desk, handed me a diaper and said "Hey Toddo, I remember when you used to shoot the three. You barely dribble these days!"

I was stunned.

I've been pretty good to the furry freak and, for the most part, I've let him have his way. Granted, I shoulda pulled out the bear costume yesterday-but do I deserve a public flogging on the internet? Remember Boo...if you don't stay humble, the Minx will do it for you!

I also reminded our resident bear that it's not necessary to play every move, it's only necessary to have a high win percentage on the moves you choose to make. While I've been playing the downsides through defined risk paper (Feb and March), I was trying to exercise patience with the metaphorical imagery and identify a more advantageous risk/reward. Yes, Mr. Handel, my current positioning warranted at least a leg--or at least some more Dead lyrics!

Anyway, enough of that--if we spend all day looking back, we'll miss the opportunities in front of us (not to mention the beauty that surrounds us). S&P 842 looks like it's dust in the wind, dude, and if that happens, the gap fillage will kick in. The internals never gave Snapper the nod and while it's certainly not over, I'd think he'd have to wake up soon. The brokers, so you know, remain the best acting (non-metal) group on my screen and IF we turn, they'll likely outperform.

A quick observation regarding Friday's expiration. While the tape has likely been buoyed by the looming expiry, it's important to note that this phenomenon works to the downside too. A lot of people like to run around saying expiration is "big to buy" or "size for sale" but, in my humble opinion, it's an ungamable event. The only insight I can offer is that expiration exacerbates volatility. Dealers who were short gamma scrambled to cover their deltas yesterday--and if the market starts to roll over, they'll need to sell deltas to square off. No idea what I'm talking about? Don't worry, the majority of your fellow Minyans don't either--but once the University of Minyanville launches, you'll have your chance to learn!

Finally, no day would be complete without a Fokker Faux Pas. My friend Waxy is taking his family to the Ritz Carlton in Palm Beach next week. So, as a surprise, I asked him to call the hotel and order a bottle of champagne (so it's waiting for him when he gets there). Sure enough, Greg RN just let me know that "Waxy" appreciates the thought but doesn't know which day he's checking in. Hey Fokker--when I ask you to set up a surprise, here's a hint--the recipient isn't supposed to know about it before it arrives!!

Hope this finds you jinglin' baby.

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