You're gonna be on the road for days!
One way or another, I'm gonna find ya
I'm gonna getcha, getcha, getcha, getcha
One way or another, I'm gonna win ya
I'm gonna getcha getcha getcha getcha
There's an old saying on Wall Street and that's that nobody makes money in a bear market--not even the bears! As we've seen over the past three years, the slippery slope is littered with false hope, empty promises and hard rallies. Each time we lift, however, there seems to be another "guru" trying to call the bottom. I'm not a bitter critter, mind you, I just want my fellow Minyans to differentiate between trading rallies and cycle turns--it's a HUGE distinction.
As I write, I'm seeing sizola call buying in the DIA and continued covering in the future pits. As we've discussed, there are legitimate reasons for a trading pop--the stochastics were pretzeled, the shorts got comfy and the path of least expectancy was higher. Now, as those conditions are alleviated, the tape merits a fresh look.
That's not to rationalize--I clearly underestimated the Minx and the psychological sea change we so eloquently anticipated last week. In this business, however, there will be good trades and there will be bad trades--and you're only as good as your last schnitzel! The goal, obviously, is to limit the missteps and define your risk on the downside. Should I have stopped our "punts" out? Perhaps--it's too early to tell. Was my thought process lucid and an extension of my thought process? Indeed.
Looking forward, there's a smattering of earnings in the days ahead, the Solly Leisure conference starts tomorrow (CCL, TOY, BBI, DIS, MAT, ERTS, GME, RCL, ect) and Beeks will be offering a steady dose of economic numbers. These catalysts surely matter but the focus in the trading community is obviously centered on the geopolitical landscape. As such, risk remains to both sides of the tape--so if you're gonna play, Mon Frere, understand the vicious crosscurrents.
On a potentially more positive note, Fokker tells me that air traffic control has given my flight the thumbs up for tonight. While I'm fairly certain that it's gonna be a nightmare getting into the big city, I have to try--I've got responsibilities and, contrary to popular opinion, i WOULD rather be in NYC right now. As such, and so you know, I may have to scoot a bit before the closing bell and begin what promises to be a long journey.
I hope this finds you well.
Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at firstname.lastname@example.org.
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