The Snapper Trapper
I'll tell ya, I get no respect. NO RESPECT!
So, you wanted to be a trader, eh? There are times in this business when the stars align, the critters giggle and the Minx plays nice. The other side of that coin (literally!) is when you're (seemingly) on the wrong side of the trade. When is enough...enough? When do you say "uncle" and take a loss? When the heck will I get back to New York to feed my cats?
There is no set answer to any of these questions (sorry Zoebird)--sometimes you set strict limits (and adhere to them) and other times it pays to roll with the punch. This morning, when I discussed my "soft" stop, I treated it "subject"...which basically means I wanted to see how the tape responded once we got there. Each trader has different parameters with which to operate and, as such, I can't "project" my methodology to my fellow Minyans. I will, however, continue to communicate why I've chosen my path (right or wrong).
The intraday stochastics that I follow to identify "entry points" have been overbought from the opening bell this morning. While the internals, sector tells and macro influences are (thus far) hangin' tough, I've yet to elect any stops on my defined risk plays. In the interest of full disclosure, I actually schnitzeled in my final 50 lot which completes my downside "punt." When (if?) the stochastics begin to work off the overbought condition, I'll be watching the internals for signs of slippage. A'ight?
Is this one of those advantageous risk/reward profiles that I constantly discuss? No--punts, by definition, are risky trades (particularly in the front month). However, after spending time with Snapper and Hoofy towards the latter part of last week, my sense is that this bounce is technical in nature and ultimately fadable. How sure am I? Sure enough to try some defined risk paper, cookie.
Keep an eye on NDX 1000 (yes, I know we're above) for signs of sustainable traction and remember that, while S&P 840 was 'a' resistance, S&P 870 remains 'the' resistance. Can we get there? Sure. Will I dust off the bear costume for a schnitz if we do? Yeah, prolly. I'm actually toying with the idea right now but I'm respectful of the illiquidity (both ways), emotion and the current momentum.
One step at a time, my friends...nobody said it was gonna be easy!
Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at firstname.lastname@example.org.
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