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Buzz Bits: Markets Dip Late


Review the Buzz before your respite!


Flashback! - Bill Meehan - 2:59 PM

This day in market history...

  • Closing levels 7 years ago found
    • DJIA: 9195.47
    • S&P 500: 1224.03
    • Naz: 2248.91
    • Crude: 11.49
    • Gold: 284.70

This day in Minyanville history...

In other news...

  • Two of the greatest athletes of all time celebrate birthdays today. Michael Jeffrey Jordan turns 43, while Jim Brown celebrates his 70th.

Strange Going Ons - Jason Goepfert - 12:22 PM

According to my quote vendor, the NYSE TICK has not traded below -500 today (meaning at no time today have more than 500 stocks last traded on a downtick than uptick among NYSE-listed issues).

This is unusual - going an entire day with a minimum reading above -500 only happens about 15% of the time. With bonds closing early, there's a possibility that we won't see the type of program selling come in that helps to cause large positive and negative TICKs. In fact, many of those rare 15% of days are concentrated around holidays when bonds close early.

I suppose one could say that this type of thing indicates buying interest, and that could very well be true, but I wouldn't read a whole lot into it. After previous instances of these kinds of days over the past couple of years, the S&P was negative 1 and 3 days later more than it was positive, though the edge wasn't exactly large.

If the TICKs can spend most of the day above zero, and particularly above -500, I think the risk is small that we see any kind of nasty intraday reversal today (particularly with the Dow futures fighting the good fight above 11,075), but with bond traders leaving soon I'm not counting on a lot of upside fireworks either.

Russell Ziske - Adam Warner - 11:33 PM
I noted the relatively overpriced IWM option board the other day. Well, it has alleviated in one sense in that the implied volatility has dropped 15% in 3 days, to 17. But the historical volatility has also lost a point to 13, so we still have some excess nervousness built in.
Now realistically, these two numbers will not converge overnight, so the Fear Factor here has waned about as much as it could in a very short time.
SPY options meanwhile are back to 'Whatever, Nevermind" mode as the 11-handle VIX reflects. There is zero excess option premium over the ETF itself.
It all suggests to me that everyone remains so afraid to miss that clarion bell that signals it is time to shift out of small cap and into big. And that sure implies it's not actually correct to shift just yet.

New kid on the block... - Tom Peterson - 11:27 AM

We've commented in the past on the Pharma HOLDRs (PPH), as has Prof. Sedacca in depth. The PPH is unfortunately dominated by Pfizer (PFE), Johnson & Johson (JNJ) and Merck (MRK). For a chart of the PPH, click here.

Please note that there is a relatively new group called "Powershares" that offer a better mix in their Dynamic Pharmaceuticals Portfolio index (PJP). While trading volume in them is not great yet, we think if it improves it will offer a challenge to the PPH (it would be just as well if they just re-did their holders components anyway). Click here for a chart of PJP.

Get your motor runnin'
Head out on the highway - Todd Harrison - 10:17 AM

The Minx slinks out of the gate as we cast our eyes to Ruby's gate. Early standout action includes the (already mentioned) energy and metal jig, some slippage in the semis (Intel down a deuce) and the type of general malaise that only the genius possess and insane lament.

As past resistance is future support, Hoofy will look to defend S&P 1280 and HGX 260 on this early downside probe. Market internals are tilted crimson, with the S's a bit better than the N's (no doubt skewed by the fixed income jig).

My eyes (adore you) are flickering between my "long SunMicro common, long IBM put" pair, the CRB (up another percent), President Fish (proudly sporting a NY Mets hat) and the clock. Old school Minyans know how special the Maven is and we're gonna saddle her up to the bar on Sunday for some Minyan Margaritas. How can we not be excited about that?

As always, I hope this finds you well.


10's get their oversold bounce and cycle high has what? - Bennet Sedacca - 9:12 AM

We mentioned yesterday that oversold conditions can be relieved by time or price. Well, we got our small oversold bounce-see chart here-and now a decline could theoretically resume.

For those of you into cycle work, we have now entered a down cycle with a cycle low target of March 15th (we get this info from a good friend whose name would rather not be disclosed). So, if we are to break that 107-08 to 107-16 quadruple bottom in the 10 year note, the decline should resume now. All we can do is wait and see.

Morning comments from Katie Townshend, CMT, chief market technician for MKM Partners: - MV Technicals - 8:16 AM

"Good morning. Over the short-term, we expect the Basic Materials SPDR, Energy SPDR, and Industrials SPDR to outperform the broader market. The Consumer Staples SPDR and Healthcare SPDR have perked up relative to the S&P 500 Index (SPX), which may indicate more defensive posturing. We expect downside leadership to come from the Utilities SPDR, Consumer Discretionary SPDR, Technology SPDR, and Financials SPDR. Please contact us with questions or comments. Thank you. KT"
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