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Random Thoughts


Art was always my favorite subject!

  • Who woulda thought that my sixth grade typing class would be the most useful skill-set of my career?

  • Overcapacity casualties? Our friends at StreetAccount report that Smith Barney's entire technical department, including Louise Yamada (equities) and Ron Daino (bonds), have been let go.

  • What's the past tense of thing? Thong?

  • I met a melt, and Fannie (FNM) was her name...

  • With best friends like this...

  • China fighter?

  • "The confusion in bond yields and their persistent decline goes beyond the rationale of the Fed Chairman. Implied forward rates, hedging activity and foreign purchases of long-dated maturities fail to shed much light on the "conundrum". Foreign central banks tend to focus their purchases on the short-end of the curve, thus minimizing the impact on the long end directly (implications on forward rates ignored). In fact, the last data we have shows only a 15% holding of long-dated treasury securities by foreign central banks, but a 48% holding of sub 2-yr paper. Given the positioning of speculators versus hedgers, the notion that the FNM's and other mortgage players are buying to increase duration appears more valid as hedgers are the only net long positions in the futures market." Jeff DeGraaf of Lehman Brothers.

  • Hey, wasn't me...

  • Keep Wal-Mart (WMT) $52 on your radar as its massive, major, mongo support.

  • Bond. More Bonds.

  • I will be chillin' in the 'Ville tomorrow morning before sneaking out of town for a last-minute rendezvous. Where am I going? A super-secret surprise visit to my belated Valentine--the one and only margarita maven herself! There were times in my life that I would NEVER miss an expiration but I will not pass on a chance to put a smile on my grandmother's face. Life is too short.

  • Gold scold.

  • "Admittedly, the energy sector is extended near-term and a consolidation phase or minor pullback should occur. But we're struck by just how many investors have been "fighting" the advance because they (a) sold into the rally and (b) have been waiting for a pullback to get back in. Sentiment feedback, along with the construction of the longer-term stock and group charts, suggest that any pullback is a buying opportunity for the energy sector." Uber-Minyan John Roque

  • As an art aficionado, I may have to visit Boise soon.

  • If the Fed was publicly traded, I would offer that we're in the midst of a short squeeze.

  • Breadth is 2:1 negative...and that's almost a true number as bonds have reversed most of their earlier losses.

  • With the exception of the cheddar omelette, rye toast and half-bag of Minyanville chocolate chip cookies, I'd say that my morning diet is going extremely well.

  • "The NYA index today got to 2317.79...0.06% away from my 7320 target derived from the 2002 lows and the 2004 lows. And it has done so in a completing fashion (meaning all the waves were "5"s into it at ALL degrees of scale (1 min, 5 min, 30 min, 55 min, etc. charts. Today's peak may be THE peak for this index. It's ALL-time high and lead to a bear mkt of several years (at least) duration. Not intended as advice - simply sharing the process." Scott Reamer on today's Buzz

  • The financials continue to offer clues for the overall muse. They've been laggy and now the tape is saggy. BKX 100 is back in Boo's sites.

  • Macke's notes from the Buzz: 1) Whipping through Hewlett-Packard (HPQ): The Street seems to finally be "seeing" the problems; margins are being complained about (in printers and TSG, mainly but generally everywhere, given HP's inferior business model... the revenue estimates provided seem to be suspiciously optimistic. My non-Feb puts are still twitching a little bit but I can't be certain there are any real signs of life. (Jeff has a position in HPQ) 2) Target (TGT) looks ok, if not great. The little hiccup/ recovery on the GIP (daily chart) was a result of Target saying revenues for the year should be "20% or better". The Street is at 23% rev growth est (according to Bloomberg). It took a minute for folks to figure out if that was a cut or conservatism (after a moment, traders opted to consider it the latter). 3) Wal-Mart (WMT) saying they did well b/c of limited promotions. Presumably they mean "promotions beyond dropping all of our prices on national TV the Monday after Black Friday".

  • Simply the best sporting event in the world. Hands down.

  • Elmer's second day on the hill is a bit more heated than yesterday. You ain't seen nuttin' yet.

  • Question for ye faithful: We're putting together our master list for presenters for MIM2:Return to the Butte (our annual Colorado financial seminar). Who would YOU like to see there?

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