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Nuts and Guts


May peace be with you!


"My pop was real big. He did like he pleased. That's why everybody worked on him. The last time I seen my father, he was blind and diseased from drinking. And every time he put the bottle to his mouth, he don't suck out of it, sucks out of him until he shrunk so wrinkled and yellow even the dogs didn't know him."

Chief Bromden, One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest

Boo McMurphy, straight jacket and all, just hopped into my office and screamed "Which one of you nuts has got any guts?!?" Wow--I think our young bear may have absorbed a few too many watts during this last shock treatment! We've yet to overcome the much discussed technical hump but Hoofy clearly has the bears on the rope. It remains to be seen if Nurse Ratched will need to tend to our young, babbling ursine.

We've talked about the intraday dynamic regarding levels vs. momentum and the bulls are clearly taking their cut. Naturally, one of three outcomes will likely unfold in the hour (and days) ahead. Either this rally attempt will falter (and the anticipatory types will be trapped), we'll breakout and run (as folks pile in) or we'll see a false breakout (and drop after the shorts scramble anew). Intuitive for the pro's, I know, but just spelling it out for the newbies as we find our way.

It's hard to argue with stellar breadth and financial leadership as they're two of our hallmark tells (and shouldn't be ignored). Still, there ARE non-confirmations both in terms of sector participation and momentum measures and while that can surely change, it is what it is. That, coupled with skin-of-the-teeth technical ceilings (S&P 1160/NDX 1515) are the only paws in the short-term bear cause. There are, of course, a myriad of big picture concerns but those never matter until they do.

Taking a peek away from equities, gold is enjoying another day in the sun as it spring-boarded above the $410 level referenced this morning. Professor McGuirk continues to write insightful commentary from down under so for those unfamiliar with his work, I encourage you to take a peek. And once again, we'll be rolling out a few new writers next week (along with the new features) so keep your eyes peeled on that front.

Lots going on in the city of critters as we ready to power down and focus on the important stuff. For my part, I may impose an official two hour sabbatical on all conference calls and visit that thing they call the gym. It's been a while since I've felt svelte (in more ways than one) so I'm gonna try that "healthy body, healthy mind" thing and hoist up some hoops. After all, every journey begins with a single dribble.

Have a peaceful night.
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