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Random Thoughts


We've on the back nine now...


  • Do race horses ever think "I gotta pee like a human?"

  • "Once again, America's fiscal policy rests on the belief that growth is the rising tide that lifts the revenue boat. America's fiscal discipline is not about tough choices -it's a classic supply-side growth gambit." -Morgan sage Stephen Roach

  • Did anyone get the sense of deja vu when the Iran headline hit today?

  • Equities are in "bend not break" mode. That leaves the door open for Snapper (particularly after the "hot potato press" this morning).

  • I've you're buying the brokers, you're making the bet that M&A fees offset margin contraction on the trading side. You're also betting that easy money will keep potential contagions too moist to spark.

  • "I'm strapping up for the ride." - Grandpa Neil Glassman

  • Good traders know how to make money. Great traders know how to take a loss.

  • DeVibe from Lehman sage Jeff DeGraff: "The NDX failed the gap resistance in classic fashion on Tuesday, with early morning strength fading into another day of tight returns. It wasn't a catastrophic failure for the NDX, but suggests that there remains overhead resistance on the index."

  • Wake up Fannie, I think I have something to say to you.

  • The energy patch, small caps, biotechs and select cyclicals trade dry today. The financials (under BKX 102) continue to lag (rotate).

  • "This "conundrum" comment is such a big deal, I apologize in advance for commenting on it so much. But this also could well be an 'emperor-has-no-clothes" moment for the Fed. After all, to laymen, the Fed is supposed to 'control' interest rates; they set the price for capital via skewing time preferences along the yield curve. So why is it that they are not able to understand the consequences of their actions? Why is it that the market isn't doing what they think it should? The admission of 'confusion' here is not a small matter. I am cynical enough to believe that such an admission won't be understood for what it is among the general public. But you, dear reader, should be under no such illusion." Scotto Reamer on today's Buzz

  • Gartner weighs in on PC growth.

  • I have nipples Greg, can you milk me?

  • Riddle me this--If Japan and Germany are in a recession and we live in a global economy, how can the collective assurances of economic expansion be so staunch?

  • Elmer text.

  • Birds of a feather?

  • "S&P 500 is into resistance (1/3/05 high was 1217.9). This is not necessarily a negative sign as consolidation / sideways action could occur here, but the pattern suggests that its price action will be resolved to the upside. Key support for the S&P 500 is 1163, for the DJIA is 10368, and for the transports it's 3454. Nasdaq has resistance at the 2100 level." Uber-Minyan John Roque of Natexis Bleichroeder.

  • Who needs analysts when we've got psychics?

  • There's Beeks!

  • Why is it that playing good hoops always puts me in a good mood?

  • Market breadth isn't as bad as it appears (3:2 negative) as its (again) being skewed by the bunk bonds.

  • Smile--we've officially arrived on the other side of the Hump.

  • When I'm not "seeing" the tape, I generally stair-step to the sectors, sub-sectors and situations (in that order) until clarity emerges. If it doesn't, I keep my powder dry and my eyes open.

  • Pimco Vibes.

  • We've got a few new professors in the wings and we're expecting to unleash them (and a few other meaty announcements) in early March. Wasabi!
  • The first thing I do when looking at a trade is ask myself "what's the downside?" That's how I was taught to assess risk and it has served me in good stead through the years. It seems to me, however, that the powers that be haven't looked at the "other side" of Social Security privatization.

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