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Random Thoughts


Focus on the important stuff....

  • Big Ben arrived with a hawk on his shoulder but the Matador Crowd initially shrugged it off with NYSE internals (2:1) and stubbornly sticky financials leading the way. The probe, which we sorta saw coming, has since stabilized as chatter continues in the Boom Boom Room.

  • Highlights from his initial cameo include:

    • More rate hikes may be needed

    • Pledges to follow Greenspan's policy approach.

    • Lots of progress made in removing accommodation

    • Sees modest falloff in housing, not sharp drop

    • Economic expansion remains "on track"

    • Upcoming policy actions "depend on data"

    • FOMC sees core inflation in 2006 1.75%, 2% in 2007- "While considerable uncertainty surrounds any economic forecast extending nearly two years, I am comfortable with these projections," he said.

    • "Output may overshoot causing price pressure"

  • This is ba-a-a-a-a-ad!

  • Citigroup, GE and Google, which I consider the world's most "important" stocks in that order, should remain on ye radar as we hike over the hump.

  • I'm open-minded on the "inverted yield curve" debate. But my gut is that we've seen this reactive rationalization before. First in and more recently in real estate.

  • Speaking of the homies, HGX 260 remains a Battlestar Gallactica.

  • Please be careful what you do by yourself when lying in bed.

  • The S&P kissed the '06 downtrend this morning and quickly reversed. S&P 1280ish (and NDX 1680ish) remain levels of lore.

  • Have you ever read my Letter I war story?

  • I nibbled a bit more on those cheapie "underneaths" in IBM during this morning's giggle higher. Only time will tell if that was prudent but I'll offer that you can trade seven ways till Sunday (or three ways till Wednesday) if you're disciplined.

  • Wraps are overrated. Paninis are underrated.

  • The weekly Investor's Intelligence survey shows a drop in bullish sentiment to 48.9%, the lowest reading since Nov 1, from 51.6% and a rise in bearish sentiment to 27.7% from 25.3%.

  • I'll be delivering the key note at the 2nd annual Entrepreneur's Retreat in Cannon Beach, Oregon on March 18th. Area Minyans are welcome to attend and can contact Professor David Miller for more dets.

  • Congratulations! You're the proud parents of a healthy baby scorpion!

  • "Now that Boom Boom Boom has spoken for a while and the little rally in bonds is over (for now), it is time to focus on our good old friend the 10 year future. See the chart here that we have been focusing on. There is very little if any support left and the downtrend line acts as a natural spot to turn bullish. As we have said before, define your risk when trading, and this sort of pattern does so easily. Again, we would need to see one of these trend lines on a closing basis to avoid getting the old head fake, like mentioned earlier in UTY." Professor Bennet Sedacca (who I think is fantastic) on today's Buzz (position in treasuries)

  • The XAU, which was trying to sport a brave face, dipped a quick 3%. With this slippage, the metal proxy has edged below the 50-day moving average. A bit of perspective? The 200-day resides at 117.

  • Want more perspective? One of my close pals just pinged me "I have a problem." "Bad trade?" I asked? "No, my dad is really, really sick." Trades come and go but THAT, Minyans, is a bad day.

  • Do you see the commodities testing the 200-day (and multiyear trendline support) at CRB 320?

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Positions in financials, IBM
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