Buzz Bits: Dow, Nasdaq See Fields of Green
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Earnings Report - MV News
- Applebee's (APPB) reports 4Q EPS of $0.27 vs. $0.23 cons on revs of $342 mln vs. $337.6 mln cons.
- Guess (GES) reports 4Q EPS of $0.99 vs. $0.93 cons on revs of $346.4 mln vs. $329.1 mln cons.
- Network Appliance (NTAP) reports 3Q GAAP EPS of $0.17 vs. $0.19 cons on revs of $729.3 mln vs. $703.41 mln cons.
- Baidu.com (BIDU) reports 4Q GAAP EPS of $0.45 vs. $0.32 on revs of $34.8 mln vs. $34.61 mln cons.
Well I married me a wife, she's been trouble all my life. Run me out in the cold rain and snow... - Todd Harrison - 2:56 PM
I hear ya Jerry, it sure is nosty out there. But as the chilly swill swings through Gotham, all is well between my eight screens. Indeed, with new ALL-TIME highs in the DJIA, Trannies, NYSE Composite, Mid-Caps, Russell, BKX, Cyclicals (CYC), NYSE A-D line and the emerging markets (EEM), the Minx is making the case that life has never been better.
I try not to fight the tea leaves and today wasn't an exception. If your next question was "Well, Sport, why weren't you riding the bull like Dr. Strangelove?" the answer is that I'm torn. I "see" the price action and very much respect it. I'm being much more selective in my risk, however, and sometimes that comes with an opportunity cost.
As it stands, I'm content to pick my spots and remain patient. Given the thin and thinner holiday sessions approaching--not to mention the fact that I'll be spending Friday with my favorite grandmother--I'm in no rush to toss risk on my sheets. I'm making 'em to take 'em, in some instances, but it's trivial in terms of our pursuit.
So, it continues to continue as I get set to join President Fish for a meaty 3 pm meld. I hope this finds you well, profitable and patient. It's funny, for all-time highs across the board, it sure doesn't feel like the bubble days of yore.
Fare ye well.
Big Win for AMERCO? - Kevin Depew - 12:33 PM
By coincidence I was just looking at AMERCO (UHAL), you know the parent company of U-Haul, because the stock is down nearly 20% in the past week - some consider it an interesting housing market proxy - when FOX News broke in to show a live, dramatic high speed U-Haul truck chase through the streets of Miami. We're talking the big 22 foot truck here, not one of the mini trucks.
I must say I was quite impressed with U-Haul. The driver's side front tire blew out fairly early in the chase, but we can attribute that to overdriving as opposed to an overall fleet problem. The overall handling of the U-Haul truck was excellent, both on the highway and through residential streets, particularly around sharp corners. It's unclear if the contents were damaged, but again, that would be more of a driver's responsibility issue than a fleet issue.
Interestingly, the stock registered a TD-Combo buy signal on the daily chart on Monday, perhaps in anticipation of a big marketing win for U-Haul. On a weekly chart support is just below 60, an interesting setup for a short-term trade. Longer-term the point and figure chart is broken and the downside objective of 40 makes any rally to the low 70s better to sell.
Feeling Gravity's Pull - Adam Warner - 9:46 AM
Just wanted to take a longer term perspective on the VIX.
Well actually the VXO, since the VIX we know now has only existed for four years or so.
Anyway, this goes back to '93, and you can see basically the VIX in the early to mid 90's spent about 99% of the time fluctuating between 10 and 15. Followed by a late 90's "repricing" that saw 20 serve as a floor for about five years.
That era ended in 2003, and we are now in an extended stretch again where 15 is "high end" and 20 is a panic spike.
So what does this say about the future? Tough to know, but my strong GUESS is that the aberration was the late 90's-early 00's lift, not the last few years. And moves we see like the lift the past few days and yesterday's 10% dip are generally more noise than anything else.
In other words "reversion to the mean" is a valid concept. But this IS the mean, in my opinion. Doesn't mean we don't see 20+ again from time to time, just that I am going to mentally treat it as Extreme Fear and not Return to Normal, until proven otherwise.
And yes, REM's "Automatic for The People" is an awesome album. I'll vote for "Life's Rich Pageant" as my REM fave though.
Vibes from Fast Money Minyan Guy Adami - 9:13 AM
One of the many perks of Fast Money other than getting to hang with The Lone Wolf for a couple of hours a night is the music they pipe onto the set before the show and during breaks. Last night they played a Neil Young song off his October of 1980 effort Hawks and Doves. I doubt Neil named the album with visions of The Federal Reserve dancing through his head and quite frankly at 16, when this album was released I didn't know the Federal Reserve from Case Western Reserve. Last night however, I found myself thinking of Uncle Ben.
Chairman Bernanke has stated all along that keeping inflation under control was of paramount importance.
To a large extent, the rate hikes we have seen over the last couple of years have done the job quite well.
However, all the economic data since the fall has pointed to a healthy if not robust economy. The job market is as strong as it has been since the late 1990's and one has to wonder if wage inflation will begin to raise its ugly head. At the last Fed meeting, the market interpreted Bernanke's comments as an "all clear sign."
Was that the market hearing what it wanted to hear? Time will tell, but my sense is you could hear a more hawkish tone in today's testimony. Basically the job of the Fed is to monitor liquidity. Interest rates are the tool with which this is accomplished. One could make the argument that given all the M&A activity over the last 18 months the market is as liquid as any time in recent history. I still think we will see a rate hike by Memorial Day but then again I don't think we ever set foot on the moon so take that for what it's worth.
Monopoly, twenty one, checkers and chess. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah...
REM was (is?) a great band. Pick up Automatic for the People...you will not be disappointed.
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