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Random Thoughts

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  • Toss the tricky Nikkei on ye radar as another anecdotal volatility input. The Japanese proxy had more swings than a neighborhood park last night, vacillating in a 500 point range before settling up a deuce (2%).

  • We've noted the quiet migration away from dollar denominated securities. I think it's safe to say--or at least be aware--that the greenback will face further supply issues down the road. When Succo and I were talking about risk management at Wharton, a student asked what type of catalyst could trigger a financial 'unwind.' I told him that it would likely be out of left field, something not on anyone's radar. Something like, say, OPEC deciding to denominate crude in Euros rather than dollars.

  • I swear, honey, I was just doing my job!

  • Keep an eye on the emerging markets. If the global trend of rising rates is gonna hurt stocks, it'll prolly ding 'em first. Maybe I should head back to keep a closer eye on the situation?

  • We noted the surprisingly dry opening in the homies this morning as a precursor to a potential Snapper. Sure 'nuff, Terrapin Station arrived in kind. The homies now face staunch resistance at HGX 260 as the tape giggles into Matador City .

  • And keep an eye on the piggies. If the inverted yield curve "matters," it'll "matter" in the financials first. Thus far, they're stubbornly sticky. I know this, of course, as I've been dabblin' in Debbie Downer paper in that complex.

  • The "easy" trade in Google? If this puppy drips straight to $300, it'll 1) be uber-oversold, 2) have filled the gap (from $333) and 3) shake out all the "it's gotta bounce on the 200-day" gamers. Of course, it may not get there but if it does, in a straight line, the ducks will be quackin' loud.

  • Dollar devaluation or asset class deflation. I just don't see how both can be avoided.

  • My girlfriend called me a bad lover. I asked her how she could tell in 30 seconds?

  • Breakfast with Cheney?

  • Or maybe this is what our Veep was aiming at?

  • (And no, the Bird Flu is NO JOKE. This is simply my way of keeping it on ye radars)

  • The S&P is currently testing the downtrend line from late January. It still has a bit of room in the whole "lower highs" scenario.

  • The drillers, which have edged below the (steep) uptrend from October, now have stochastics more oversold than anytime since....October.

  • Hey boss, just call 1-800-Paul-Allen!

  • "I want to reiterate how important the 54% decline in Natural Gas is to the deflation theme. I am expecting a 40-70% mutli-week bounce over the next several weeks that is entirely mean reverting, but with Nat Gas down 54% in just 63 days that speaks volumes about the fact that it isn't supply and demand governing commodities, but rather liquidity and speculation." Scotto Reamer on today's Buzz.

  • NYSE breadth has edged sweet (3:2). Just in time for Valentine's Day smooches.

  • Hey crude, do we hear a five handle?

  • Boom, done! The VXO is off a finski (5%) and back below Bar Mitzvah age.

  • And finally, as we collectively try this whole "work to live" thing, lemme wish ye faithful a happy V-day. Enjoy it; it's the last February 14, 2006 that we'll ever see.


    R.P.

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No positions in stocks mentioned.

Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at todd@minyanville.com.

The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.

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