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Random Thoughts

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  • Toss the tricky Nikkei on ye radar as another anecdotal volatility input. The Japanese proxy had more swings than a neighborhood park last night, vacillating in a 500 point range before settling up a deuce (2%).

  • We've noted the quiet migration away from dollar denominated securities. I think it's safe to say--or at least be aware--that the greenback will face further supply issues down the road. When Succo and I were talking about risk management at Wharton, a student asked what type of catalyst could trigger a financial 'unwind.' I told him that it would likely be out of left field, something not on anyone's radar. Something like, say, OPEC deciding to denominate crude in Euros rather than dollars.

  • I swear, honey, I was just doing my job!

  • Keep an eye on the emerging markets. If the global trend of rising rates is gonna hurt stocks, it'll prolly ding 'em first. Maybe I should head back to keep a closer eye on the situation?

  • We noted the surprisingly dry opening in the homies this morning as a precursor to a potential Snapper. Sure 'nuff, Terrapin Station arrived in kind. The homies now face staunch resistance at HGX 260 as the tape giggles into Matador City .

  • And keep an eye on the piggies. If the inverted yield curve "matters," it'll "matter" in the financials first. Thus far, they're stubbornly sticky. I know this, of course, as I've been dabblin' in Debbie Downer paper in that complex.

  • The "easy" trade in Google? If this puppy drips straight to $300, it'll 1) be uber-oversold, 2) have filled the gap (from $333) and 3) shake out all the "it's gotta bounce on the 200-day" gamers. Of course, it may not get there but if it does, in a straight line, the ducks will be quackin' loud.

  • Dollar devaluation or asset class deflation. I just don't see how both can be avoided.

  • My girlfriend called me a bad lover. I asked her how she could tell in 30 seconds?

  • Breakfast with Cheney?

  • Or maybe this is what our Veep was aiming at?

  • (And no, the Bird Flu is NO JOKE. This is simply my way of keeping it on ye radars)

  • The S&P is currently testing the downtrend line from late January. It still has a bit of room in the whole "lower highs" scenario.

  • The drillers, which have edged below the (steep) uptrend from October, now have stochastics more oversold than anytime since....October.

  • Hey boss, just call 1-800-Paul-Allen!

  • "I want to reiterate how important the 54% decline in Natural Gas is to the deflation theme. I am expecting a 40-70% mutli-week bounce over the next several weeks that is entirely mean reverting, but with Nat Gas down 54% in just 63 days that speaks volumes about the fact that it isn't supply and demand governing commodities, but rather liquidity and speculation." Scotto Reamer on today's Buzz.

  • NYSE breadth has edged sweet (3:2). Just in time for Valentine's Day smooches.

  • Hey crude, do we hear a five handle?

  • Boom, done! The VXO is off a finski (5%) and back below Bar Mitzvah age.

  • And finally, as we collectively try this whole "work to live" thing, lemme wish ye faithful a happy V-day. Enjoy it; it's the last February 14, 2006 that we'll ever see.


    R.P.

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