The Golden Road
May peace be with you!
Truckin' - got my chips cashed in
Keep Truckin - like the doodah man
Together - more or less in line
Just keep Truckin on
(The Grateful Dead)
Well my friends, at the risk of being absolutely lambasted by the critters, I've made an executive decision. I've flattened out my risk, I'm relatively fried, the three-day respite looms and (I think) I'm gonna fly to Rubyville to spend the weekend with my family. Why? If we've learned anything, it's the importance of balance and perspective and there's nothing better than sharing a strawberry margarita with my gorgeous grandmother.
Before I scoot, I wanted to share some thoughts with my fellow Minyans. I've been watching the 21-day charts for direction and, in my absence, I urge you to keep an eye on those frisky ticks. There is a relatively defined channel (from the last week in January) and IF it cracks (either way), the technicians will likely get involved. Just something to watch as the day continues to evolve.
There remain a ton of crosscurrents and, as you know, the geopolitical situation remains largely unsolved. I can't tell whether exposure is warranted over the weekend--that's a decision you need to make for yourself. If nothing happens, we'll probably gap higher on Monday but, for my part, I'm not gonna make that bet. I've long said that the ability not to trade is as important as one's trading ability and I'm gonna sit this one out. Opportunities, as few as they may be, are made up easier than losses.
A large component of the long side trade was the oversold nature of the tape and the duct tape despair. With yesterday's Snapper and today's traction (thus far) an element of that condition has been removed. Yes, the stochastics are gonna rip Boo a new toukas at a point but, remember, timing is everything. If you're too early--or stay too late--it won't really matter if you're reasoning is correct.
The bulls have planted the upside seeds and, after the drubbing we've seen, that should be factored into our mix. The psychological metric has taken the "con" and, as such, we must appreciate the potential for it to turn. As it stands, this is a technical bounce---but if S&P 840 and NDX 980 get taken out on the upside, it'll warrant a fresh look.
Aside from the obvious global issues, next week will bring us a smattering of economic data, a handful of earnings and a couple of conferences. In other words, the tape trades on and they'll be plenty of chances to trade 'em once while the market's open for business. I'm not saying not to put on risk--I just wanted to make sure that you're aware of the potential volatility (both ways).
In Minyanville news (and a shameless moment of critter promotion), I've got one of the spankin' brand new fleeces on and I'll tell ya--they're friggin' fantastic! I try not to "push" anything on this site...but I really think that you'll dig these in a big way. They're soft, they're blue, they're embroidered and, best of all, they've got the R.P stitched on the cuff (in honor of my grandpa). Besides, 10% of all proceeds go to the Ruby Foundation for Children's Education and,well, there's nothing more important than helping out kids!
Deep breaths as we head towards the weekend. Money, while important, is a means to an end and the soldier sitting in a foxhole right now would argue that we don't know what stress is! I'm not saying that it doesn't matter--it surely does--but it pales in comparison to the important things in life. I know a lot of wealthy people who lead miserable existences and many more who would gladly trade their money for time. Take advantage of what we have--there's no guarantee it'll be there tomorrow.
Have a peaceful weekend.
Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at firstname.lastname@example.org.
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