One Way Street!
Is it getting better
Or do you feel the same
Will it make it easier on you now
You got someone to blame
Holy Cow, Daisy, this is whippy stuff! Why did I punt the costume into that lift? Glad you asked! I've got the 21-day charts up (NDX and S&P) and we Blixed right to the top of the band camp. Factor the looming resistance at SOX 280 (among others), the (intra-day) overbought condition and the potential for jittery critters and, well...I was happy to step on the sidelines and take a deep breath.
I almost did the Texas two-step and gave Boo a nod but I didn't want to get too cute. There's a difference between trading proactively and trading too much and risk remains (both ways) in today's tape. Rather than toss risk around as a matter of course, I wanted to make sure that my capital commitment was a lucid and well thought out process. In other words, we stroked a nice single to center and rather than test the Minx's arm, I'm happy to nudge up my batting average.
Ok--what now? The psychological metric is in the driver's seat and the rest of the day is admittedly difficult to game. The breadth remains constructive, the stochastics are still coiled, the semis hold their bid, skepticism abounds and the most unlikely scenario is a continued rally. Those are the positives. On the frip side, we're working off the oversold condition, we've tickled northside resistance, we still have a three-day weekend ahead of us and, oh yeah, we might go to war.
What am I doing? Less..if anything. My goal is to identify advantageous risk/reward and when it's unclear (as it is now), discipline dictates flattening a bit (if you can). If something piques my interest (either way), I can pounce on it. If not, I can (humbly) eat my sashimi and watch Fokker--he's always worth a good laugh!
I know many of you aren't as "short-sighted" as I am but, again, I can only communicate what I'm doing and how I'm doing it. Hopefully, at some level, it adds value to your process and enables you to make more informed decisions. That, my friends, is what Minyanville is all about.
I hope this finds you well!
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