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Birds of Paradise

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This one's for the female Minyans among us!

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Blackbird singing in the dead of night
Take these broken wings and learn to fly
All your life
You were only waiting for this moment to arise.

(Lennon/McCartney)

It's a relatively quiet morning in Minyanville and the critters keep asking me if this is the calm before the storm. It certainly feels that way--there's a stillness in the air that's almost...too peaceful. With Franz on his way to 46th and 1st, the whole world is waiting with baited breath for clarity we're (likely) not gonna get. How's the Minx gonna react in front of the three-day? Oofa, baby--this could be the wackiest session yet!

Absent the geopolitical mess--which is no small task--the overnight news wasn't all that bad. DELL was solid (relative to expectations), the mighty Bear initiated MSFT with an outperform, Morgan Stanley and Tom Weisel upgraded NVDA and Soundiew upped numbers in ADI. On the frip side, AMG reports that another $2.9 Billion snuck out of equity funds (no shocker) and, coupled with the historically low levels of cash in the mutual fund community, we need to take note of that.

So...what now? While I'm bullish for a pure trade, I acknowledge and respect the emotional (and fragile) state of mind (particularly in front of the long weekend). As such, I've chosen to define my risk via (march) upside paper and I'm not pressing any bets. The fact that NOBODY thinks rally today intrigues me--but that, in and of itself, isn't a reason to play. However, when I factor in the duct tape despair, oversold readings and coiled stochastics, I can justify my current posture.

Tells today include Citigroup (and the financials), the semi-caps (sentiment), crude.com (getting lofty?), our internals (need some jig), the horsies (big cap tech), the dollar and our levels. Watch yesterday's lows on the downside and focus on S&P 840, NDX 980, SOX 280 and BKX 725 on the upside.

There's a smattering of economic data filtering out between now and 9:50am and, while everyone's focusing on Blixer and Dancer and Prancer and Rudolph, keep half an eye peeled for any signs of economic pick-up. The tape is the proverbial dry forest and, as such, we need to be diligent in our search for a spark.

Deep breaths fellow Minyans as we find our way. On an entirely warmer note, the new shipment of fleeces arrived today and they're tremendous! I'm not a hawker--but many a Minyan have asked me to give a heads up when they got here and, well--game on! Besides, 10% of all proceeds at Harrison's Department store will be donated to The Ruby Foundation for Children's Education and, well, that's good karma!

Knock 'em silly today.

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