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Birds of Paradise

By

This one's for the female Minyans among us!

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Blackbird singing in the dead of night
Take these broken wings and learn to fly
All your life
You were only waiting for this moment to arise.

(Lennon/McCartney)

It's a relatively quiet morning in Minyanville and the critters keep asking me if this is the calm before the storm. It certainly feels that way--there's a stillness in the air that's almost...too peaceful. With Franz on his way to 46th and 1st, the whole world is waiting with baited breath for clarity we're (likely) not gonna get. How's the Minx gonna react in front of the three-day? Oofa, baby--this could be the wackiest session yet!

Absent the geopolitical mess--which is no small task--the overnight news wasn't all that bad. DELL was solid (relative to expectations), the mighty Bear initiated MSFT with an outperform, Morgan Stanley and Tom Weisel upgraded NVDA and Soundiew upped numbers in ADI. On the frip side, AMG reports that another $2.9 Billion snuck out of equity funds (no shocker) and, coupled with the historically low levels of cash in the mutual fund community, we need to take note of that.

So...what now? While I'm bullish for a pure trade, I acknowledge and respect the emotional (and fragile) state of mind (particularly in front of the long weekend). As such, I've chosen to define my risk via (march) upside paper and I'm not pressing any bets. The fact that NOBODY thinks rally today intrigues me--but that, in and of itself, isn't a reason to play. However, when I factor in the duct tape despair, oversold readings and coiled stochastics, I can justify my current posture.

Tells today include Citigroup (and the financials), the semi-caps (sentiment), crude.com (getting lofty?), our internals (need some jig), the horsies (big cap tech), the dollar and our levels. Watch yesterday's lows on the downside and focus on S&P 840, NDX 980, SOX 280 and BKX 725 on the upside.

There's a smattering of economic data filtering out between now and 9:50am and, while everyone's focusing on Blixer and Dancer and Prancer and Rudolph, keep half an eye peeled for any signs of economic pick-up. The tape is the proverbial dry forest and, as such, we need to be diligent in our search for a spark.

Deep breaths fellow Minyans as we find our way. On an entirely warmer note, the new shipment of fleeces arrived today and they're tremendous! I'm not a hawker--but many a Minyan have asked me to give a heads up when they got here and, well--game on! Besides, 10% of all proceeds at Harrison's Department store will be donated to The Ruby Foundation for Children's Education and, well, that's good karma!

Knock 'em silly today.

positions in msft and s&p

Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at todd@minyanville.com.

The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.

Copyright 2011 Minyanville Media, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

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