A Valentine's kiss for good luck!
Keep a rolling
Just a mile to go
Keep on rolling, my old buddy
You're moving much too slow
Good morning and welcome back to the uphill climb. The week that was a year edges into it's final session today and, after the recent madness, I can only imagine how the Minx will perform an encore! Indeed, trader Sisyphus tried to get over the hump yesterday and, for most of the session, it appeared as if he would succumb to the forces of gravity. A late rally (and an after-hours nudge) gave hope to the despondent bulls--but will it last? It's freaky Friday in Minyanville, boys and girls, strap yourself in and let's get shakin!
My general rule of thumb is that the Minx will travel the path of maximum frustration. It's a nonsensical thought but whenever I'm about to initiate risk, I always ask myself "what's the hardest trade here?" It helps me to identify conventional wisdom and over the past few years, it's paid to play salmon to the mainstream.
As we discussed yesterday, beauty is in the eye of the beholder and the duct tape dizziness was either going to exacerbate the slide or prove to be a compelling entry point. While nobody I speak with thinks the market can rally into the weekend, we're not gonna know (if it can) without the benefit of hindsight. However, if we can identify the proper vehicles and trade with discipline, the navigation process becomes (relatively) digestible.
While I faded the most recent meltage and currently have a leg in my metaphorical bull costume, I'm admittedly wary of the October lows (and their ability to hold). The long side trade, in my humble estimation, is an alleviation of the oversold condition and an attempt to keep the bears honest. I still think the Sham (hard lift) is "out there," I'm just wondering if it has to begin from lower levels.
One step at a time, my friend, as we try to climb inside the collective mindset and find our way. As it stands, I'm sticking with Hoofy (pure trade) and I've defined my parameters in a manner consistent with my (unique) risk profile. These are decisions we must all make for ourselves as each of us must live with the consequences of our actions. Think positive, keep that right hand up and trade to win. We'll get there.
Good luck today.
Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at email@example.com.
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