Testing - testing
This morning I wrote about the potential for a bounce that may provide for a better selling opportunity than right now where angst is high and prices have dropped substantially (today would be seventh down day out of last eight days). Ultimately, as I said this morning;
While there could be a bounce around these levels, any upside is likely to be fleeting until; (a) the indicators get oversold enough on an intermediate-term basis, (b) there is some resolution to the Iraq situation, (c) valuations come down either by price deterioration or surging fundamentals.
I would like to pass along a couple of thoughts on the bounce thesis and a possible intermediate-term low;
1. EVERYONE in the world knows that it would be crazy to be a buyer ahead of the three-day weekend in this geo-political environment. That probably means sellers have already done their thing.
2. EVERYONE is waiting for a retest of October lows. Shhhhh, don't tell anyone but the S&P 500 is within 8 points of its weekly low close last October. If it is going to bounce, it should come from around these levels.
3. A successful retest (IF it happens around here) would be just the thing to suck in enough buyers thinking that the low is in place, to lead to the REAL decline (as they turn tail and sell) that would line up the intermediate-term indicators properly for a sustainable rally in order of 20+%. The key is to not get too excited about a bounce and be more excited to buy on a decline where there is real evidence of a meaningful low.
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