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What's the Deal?


Auction off a day with Tony and THEN you'll get my attention!


Since it cost a lot to win
and even more to lose
You and me bound to spend some time
wondering what to choose

(Grateful Dead)

It's tempting, right? Every time the ticks start flickering to the upside, visions of Snapper dance in my head also! The problem--and yes, this is subject to change--is that he internals don't improve with the upticks. In fact, every lift we've had in the last few weeks seems to be tied to the alleviation of an oversold condition and NOT true underlying demand. I mean, I've been sniffin for gorillas and, thus far, I've come up with bananas.

Obviously, ONE of these lifts is gonna stick it to the bears and our job dictates that we identify which one it is. I know I've been eyeing S&P 810 for a while and I'm conscious that WHEN it's time to buy 'em, there will likely be many reasons not to. The news is always best at trading tops and always worst at trading bottoms. THAT, my friend, is why our goal is to sell hope and buy despair.

My issue--well, one of my issues anyway--is the orderly nature of this selling. It's either very bullish (resiliency) or overtly bearish (complacency). With my big picture tint, however, the tie-breaker goes to the bears and I'm erring to the side of caution. Give me some swift selling, a VIX spike and "bid wanted" situations and I'll stand up and take notice (not to mention stock). Until then, I'm dancin' in the streets (both ways).

BRCD, FOX, NWS, TMPW and a host of other companies will be reporting tonight while AIG (already messed), BHI, CPN, CPB, HAS and ODP will release their numbers tomorrow before the bell. Lest we forget, Monsieur Beeks will swing by with Retail Sales (exp. .6%, less autos .5%) and Initial jobless claims (exp. 390K) so stay on your toes and factor these inputs into your trading mix.

Before I go, I wanted to briefly clue you in on the upcoming charity auction. The Ruby Foundation will be teaming up with Jacob's Cure to auction off a day "in" Minyanville. Included in this package will be a full day sitting by my side, an all-out sashimi fest, an opportunity to spend some time on the floor of the exchange, a back-rub from Fokker (optional), a lifetime membership to Minyanville and a bevy of other goodies (TBA). We're still piecing together the details and bids are NOT YET being accepted--but it's out there and coming soon! Best of all--it all goes to charity and when that happens, everybody's a winner!

Good luck into the home stretch!

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