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Random Thoughts!


Trade 'em smart and hit 'em hard.


  • Cold war, cold shoulder....what's the difference?

  • Equity funds reported net inflows of $4.46 bln for the week ending Feb 9 with domestic fund inflows of $2.3 bln, emerging market fund inflows of $589 mln (the second highest inflow ever next to Jan 5 '94), tech outflows of ($145.9 mln) and taxable bond fund inflows of $755 mln.

  • Hoofy will note the 2:1 breadth and beta boogie. Boo will point to the toppy S&P stochastics and non-participation in the banks.

  • Did you download your instant message critter icon yet?

  • Gatttaca?

  • "When pundits forecast an S&P 500 level of 1,350 or higher by the end of 2005, they should also specify at which level of exchange rates the U.S. dollar will find itself. After all, in an inflationary environment (asset inflation), domestic prices can be boosted by an expansionary monetary policy, but at the corresponding expense of a weakening exchange rate." - Minyan Marc Faber

  • Novellus (+7%) is the latest spark in the dark semi space. Please note that the SOX has now taken out the February highs.

  • "We are subsidizing Mr. Bush," Hugo Chavez said. "Not one Venezuelan works at these refineries," he said of Citgo while touring in Buenos Aires. "They don't give us one cent of profit. They don't pay taxes in Venezuela. This is economic imperialism."

  • Please note that the VXO is creepin' while ya sleepin. It was down 4% and is about to flip the switch to Matador City (up on the day)

  • Sly like a Fox.

  • "Why all the excitement? Todd mentioned earlier the chatter by sell-side analysts regarding fund flows. I've seen a lot of it, too. Frankly, I'm confused about why. Over the past 2 1/2 years, the correlation between inflows to equity mutual funds (according to AMG Data) and S&P 500 returns 4 weeks later is -0.22. That means that the higher the inflow, the more negative the performance of the S&P and vice-versa. In fact, the correlations are negative for every time period from 1 to 12 weeks later. Check out this note from May 14th. Then we were seeing the largest outflows in over a year...and that was nearly the exact low in the S&P as it went on to rally for the next two months." Jason Goepfert on today's Buzz.

  • Will somebody please ground Petie before he hurts himself?

  • "I expect the dollar to be 5-10% higher over the coming year. In addition, the last transition phase of the economic cycle...(mid 90's) I so often mention was accompanied by a huge dollar decline at the time from 14% from beginning of '94 (when rates started going up) to early 95 when rates stopped going up. That low in the dollar was followed by 20% gains in all major indices over the coming year. The thought that higher rates leads to a stronger currency sounds great but doesn't hold water in middle of last cycle that resembles this one." Snoop Tony Dwyer (with a bit of a milk moustache)

  • Brand Loyalty.

  • How can I have known Scott Reamer and Tony Dwyer for as long as I have and never known that they shared the same birthday? (Bad friend) Toddo wishes both of you the happiest and healthiest wishes today and always.

  • Aunt Fannie spends the weekend at Bernie's.

  • How can Americans be expected to balance their checkbook when America can't?

  • Note the double resistance at gold $420. It's the downtrend line (from late November) and the breakdown zone (former support).

  • Laurie's SPY position may come back to bite him.

  • It's the strangest thing. I switched deodorants (by chance) and haven't smelled myself all day!

  • Unique perspective from John Templeton.

  • This will be my last post of the week as I gotta juggle hats and focus on some behind the scenes stuff. I'll be on the Buzz for a bit before turning the tunes over to my fellow professors. I sincerely hope that you all had a good week, are having a great day and will have an even better weekend. I know some of you are frustrated by the tape (raise your hand!) but take a deep breath and look ahead--that's where the profits are!

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