By Todd Harrison Feb 11, 2004 2:13 pm
I gots chills, that are multiplying....
Down the local armory
With a basement full of dynamite
And live artillery.
Well alrightee then....we've got Elmer to the left, sushi to the right, resistance up above and dynamite below. Beauteous! It's enough to drive a Minyan crazy, I know, but rather than swallow it all at once, let's look at the big picture as a series of little pictures. That sometimes helps to hone the focus.
First things first, Hoofy is trying to put the issue of resistance behind him as he treads above S&P 1150. At the risk of being called a rationalizer, I would remind Minyans that the 'zone' is S&P 1150-1160 and the potential of a "false breakout" exists. Again, breadth of the S's is 2:1 positive, the brokers are blazing and the semis are starting to stick. That's what the bovine are bantering about.
Taking a step back, the dollar is getting thwacked (yawn), gold is getting bold and the fixed income market is toying with acne of its own. While Goldilocks ticks and tocks, the three bears are running scared. The word on the Street is that the macros (hedge funds) were short out the wazoo and getting squeezed like a Florida orange. The tape trades that way but there's no way to game when they'll "clean up."
From a trading perspective, a strong close above S&P 1165 (NDX 1515) would likely trigger a new round of towel tossing. It's a bit jittery out there but setting levels (and defining risk) removes emotion. Discipline trumps conviction, Minyans, and while the war is FAR from over, you must pick and choose your battles. The mechanics of the swing are equally important as the results of the at-bat (sorta).
Catalyst wise (not including the technical metric)? The Sadie Hawkins dance will continue tomorrow and when it's over, prom king Michael Dell (DELL:NASD) will steal the spotlight. Michael is typically bullish (and stresses the "haves" vs. "have nots") but it's a blip on our trading radar nonetheless. Analog Devices (ADI:NYSE) will also share their view, for those interested, as will NVIDIA (NVDA:NASD).
This is an important close in many ways so stay on your toes as we eye the closing bell. And as always, think positive cookie--it all starts within.
I'll be back.
position in qqq
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