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"Feeling" for signs


As bad as it "feels" after four grinding negative weeks, sentiment is still clearly not at the washed out stage that could lead to a significant broad based rally. At the low, any news that is less than a disaster creates a spark that causes a surge in an individual name or market as a whole. Near an important sustainable low, if a company announces they expect to meet expectations, it should see a meaningful move higher. Earlier today TXN said they should meet expectations, and the stock is only up a half. Even if it goes up more today, the initial reaction seems to indicate this bounce in the tape should be limited to a small percentage and day count.

In addition, Mr. Greenspan didn't really say anything (that I could tell through the foreign language) to go against what the indicators outlined last Thursday suggesting caution. The market has been under pressure and I am clearly looking for signs of an intermediate-term low, but am not finding many yet. The potential for a rally on the war keeps continues to hold shorts at bay and the potential for an even more confusing environment ahead of a war keeps the longs at bay. It spells out a general lack of interest grind lower, not because everyone wants out, but because no one wants in for more than a few hours.

Let me offer a quick shout out to my man Charles. Charles is a good friend and client who has great perspective on the tape and an even better one on biz and life. He has a new 5-week old baby at home and said, "It is hard to go to work each day...especially Monday and I want to run home right after the close." Now there is Minyanville material!
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Thank God you can't see my belly in this picture after that lunch.
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