With everyone fading resistance, the element of surprise rests with the bulls!
It's a chilly morning in Minyanville and the Menagerie was gathered at the local diner for some oatmeal and hot chocolate. It was rather crowded for a Tuesday and the Octopus was serving critters left, right, center, left-center and hard right. All of a sudden, the front door (viciously) swung open and standing there, with his hoofs on his hips, was Hoofy.
There was a momentary silence in the restaurant--a hush, if you will--before everyone continued their conversation. Hoofy, wearing a full-length shearling coat and a silk scarf, pranced over to the table and assumed his seat among his table of friends.
Hoofy: Good morning fellas, (turning to Daisy and giving her a kiss) Sup' baby?
Boo: (looking at his friend incredulously) Are you kidding me? Dude--you're wearing a sheep! The irony! And why are you in such a good mood? The markets been down four weeks in a row and every time we walk into an "up" morning, it get's smacked like bug, gnat. I mean, even Toddo, who got dressed in that silly bull outfit yesterday, said that S&P 840 was the "easier" trade--and we're there now. You're up against resistance, bro--I wouldn't celebrate yet.
Snapper: (giving Hoofy a wink) I'd be worried if there weren't skeptics! The thing is this, Boo--traders have been conditioned to fade (read: sell) rallies and it's worked well--I'll give you that. The Minx likes to keep traders honest, though, and a trading pop through S&P 840--maybe to S&P 870--would likely suck in some fresh optimism.
Sammy: The kids got a point, Boo. Look at the very defined downtrend line in the NDX...we're pushing up against it now. Same thing with S&P 840...we're right there. If the tape can manage to poke through these levels, you could see some squeezage to the next resistance. It's dicey--that's for certain--but it's possible. Especially with the stochastics as coiled as they are.
Boo: Yeah, yeah, yeah...pull this leg and it plays Jingle Bells! Why would you try and game a cute trade to the upside when the prevalent trend is lower? The bears aren't going to relinquish these levels without a fight--they see what you see. The odds are stacked...speaking of which, wasabi Daisy!
Daisy, who had been listening intently to the conversation but not participated, ignored Boo and continued to focus on her grapefruit.
Sammy: Anyway, we've got some new catalysts today. Elmer speaks at 10:00, The BankAmerica tech fete kicks off (CSCO, TECD, PSFT, AMD, ORCL, HPQ, KLAC, CHKP, FLEX, TXN, INTC, BRCM, JNPR, ect), the mighty Bear has a software conference (NET, SYMC, NTIQ, VRSN, SEBL), Cowen has it's aerospace gig (GD, HON, GR, BA), there's a QCOM analyst meeting and Goldman has lunch with EBAY. I wonder what they'll eat?
Hoofy: Sushi, I'm sure! You guys also see that Europe is higher across the board, JP Morgan is constructive on DELL, Bear is pushing BEAS and Solly upped X from a 3 to a 1? Also, MMM raised it's quarterly dividend (it's in the Dow)...when's the last time THAT happened?
Boo: Yeah...but Bear is negative on handsets (MOT, QCOM), MU and PSFT and UBS slashed numbers for NVDA. Plus, Goldman and Merrill are cautious on I.T spending this morning. Ya got some selective hearing my friend!
Daisy: (dabbing her lips with a napkin) Guys, enough! Why do you always have to quibble? Let's take it one step at a time and watch our tells. The breadth is super-important, the financials, software and semis are a focus and our macro tells need to be monitored. Don't forget, $361 is an important level for gold! Hey Hoofs...if gold comes for sale, will you buy me some?
Hoofy: Shmoopie, for you, anything! (leans over and gives her a kiss)
With that, Boo stood up and tossed his napkin down "I think I'm gonna be ill!" The critters chuckled and finished off the morsels on their plate. As the Menagerie made their way towards the cash register, Boo stopped and turned to Hoofy. "You know I'm just messin' witcha, right Hoofs? You'll always be my friend. Lemme grab the tab." Hoofy smiled at his furry friend. "I know bro...during times like these, friends and family are most important. Here, let's split it."
And so they did.
Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at firstname.lastname@example.org.
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