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Freaky Friday Random Thoughts


Bring it!

  • The stock market is the world's largest thermometer, both in the big picture and intraday. The Minx was a giddy city throughout yesterday's morning rampage but morphed into a Debbie Downer as supply took control. In the process, the S's and N's both put in their third "lower high" of 2006, a technical development that bears watching.
  • Interestingly enough, the BKX was pink (slightly red) in the seas of green and slightly green in the face of the Crimson Tide. While rotation station (sector action) is providing great trading opportunities, I continue to feel that the piggies provide the best proxy for the tape. Particularly with an inverted yield curve.
  • Curve yield inverted? Scott Reamer noted on yesterday's Buzz that the 2/10 inversion is now 11 bips, the first dabble in double digits during this most recent move. It's also the largest inversion since February 18, 2000 (which eventually grew to -51 bips).
  • The movements in commodities are nuttier than Austin Power's coffee. And yes, I think that rolls into the equity arena with time. "The world we live in" vs. "VXO 12" is the second largest disconnect in the financial markets. The first? (biting my fingers).
  • How the mighty have fallen! Google, which is the definition of a speculative proxy, is off 25% from it's January high and starting to eye it's 200-day (332) for the first time ever (also note the large gap from October between 302 and 332). Apple, meanwhile, is off 26% from it's January high and making Sir Isaac Newton proud. The stochastics on both stocks are twisting on the bottom of my page, opening the door for some eventual snappage.
  • A weekend Nor'easter? Noice--it's the perfect excuse to stock up and chill out!
  • "Whether you are interested in big pharma, big biotech, or small biotech, this morning's 9am presentation from Pfizer (PFE) is a must-listen. How will Pfizer address generic Zocor competition? Will they announce expanded interest into oncology? Who will they be interested in buying or, alternately, what medical areas will their B/D people look to first." David Miller on this morning's buzz
  • Don't mess with critters. There's only so much they can take.
  • I still think energy and metals are long-term winners but, as many of you know, I pared my risk a few weeks back. The 10% pullback in crude is par for any bull market course (and it may have a bit more to go). For perspective purposes, similar slippage in the yellow metal would put that puppy at $517/oz.
  • IBM opened sloppier than a partying Paris yesterday but crawed it's way back towards resistance as the day wore on. I still have puts in this name (with a tight stop above right shoulder/200-day resistance at $81ish), which is both a decent spec and a nice hedge vs. my long SunMicro stock.
  • Gin and Juice? The Homies continue to eyeball 200-day resistance at HGX 260.
  • So Fannie Mae awarded its CEO $8,000,000 of restricted stock (on top of his base salary of $850,000 and 2005 cash bonus of $2,600,000) despite the ongoing investigation and an inability to provide accurate financials since the middle of 2004? Am I eating a silly sandwich? Does anyone else find this egregiously bothersome? And...are they hiring?
  • Good luck today.

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position in financials, sunw, ibm
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