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Random Thoughts


Line up your ducks before you start hunting!


  • Toddlin' Town?

  • "If we don't do this, we are just going to carry on being slaves, suppliers of raw materials, all our lives and we will never develop our own productive capacity," Mr Alvarez added.

  • This morning on the Buzz, we discussed how the metals failed to flail when the dollar (initially) ripped higher on the heels of the trade balance. That, to these old eyes, was a sign that they were potentially washed out for a trade. Sure 'nuff, silver is now 5% higher and gold is up a finski.

  • In a valiant effort to save Toby, Chuck paid the ultimate price.

  • "Maybe this cycle will be different from the last one, but so far it is tracking pretty closely and we see no reason for that to change. We continue to believe our 1330 target (19x $70) on the S&P 500 (SPX) should prove to be conservative and would focus in those areas related to accelerated capital expenditures, especially Information Tech, Capital Markets and Commercial Lending Financials, as well as Industrials on weakness. We would wait for a meaningful pause in Energy to be buyers." -Snoop Tony Dwyer of FTN Midwest Securities

  • Power to the people, eh?

  • Mr. Guynn said the low level of long-term interest rates may reflect confidence that the Fed will keep inflation low, but may also reflect "enormous liquidity out there." That liquidity, he said, is "causing people to ... engage in some speculative kinds of behavior. I see it in some pockets of Florida, clearly speculative activity in real estate. My hunch is it's people who have money that they're not sure what else to do with. ... The narrower risk spreads we see in financial markets suggest people are looking hard for return. The most important question to ask is: what if those rates behave differently going forward?" The Wall Street Journal, Feb 9, 2005

  • Iran. Iran so far away?

  • Big snaps to Scotto on his complexity theories. I maintain that he's sniffing at the genesis of an entirely new methodology of modeling prices.

  • Whacky!

  • The nets (GOOG) and nuts (RIMM) have pulled the NDX down to initial support (1500). Note tech breadth is negative (5:9) as you assimilate whether that level will hold.

  • S's over N's as the rotation into energy and metals skews the view.

  • No Meehan, we can't have a Connecticut Minyanfest this weekend.

  • DXY 84 (former resistance) is initial support for the grubby greenback.

  • Chicken Little would be proud.

  • "HUI and XAU technical update. These indices look very much like they have put in a good bottom on Feb 8th (Daily DeMark, a completed impulse wave down from the peak and a subsequent short term "5" up). If so, we can expect 11-17% moves off the 2/8 bottom over the next several weeks before the larger downtrend starts back in earnest. For now, this counter-trend bounce is expected to continue upward in a choppy fashion, held against the lows from the 8th. Any price action below the lows from Feb 8th changes the pattern and thus the conclusion. These names will be poised for a very aggressive move down in a few weeks once this bounce is complete. Not advice, just sharing the view from the indicators." Scotto Reamer on today's Buzz.

  • Macro volatility is in full swing (crude up 3%, metals, bonds) and it's worth noting that this type of action often serves as a precursor to equity swingers.

  • Geopolitical risk has not only been discounted but is often mocked. That, in and of itself, is a bit disturbing.

  • All of a sudden, my ex-girlfriend doesn't seem so bad!

  • The best breadth "read" is when they're skewed 2:1 (either way) wire-to-wire.

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