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Random Thoughts




  • We've walked through the laundry list of potential flags. Some things to watch the other way include a benign Elmer speech (tomorrow), a good Treasury refunding and a continuation of the recovery in junk spreads (that started yesterday)

  • A humble request to all Minyans. Please join me in saying "J-T-B" and send some white light to the left coast. Thanks!

  • Further suggestions for Fokker Jr.- Ruprecht, Gaylord and the Gipper.

  • There was an article in last week regarding new accounting and off-balance sheet assets. This rule (FIN 46) impacted Cisco (CSCO:NASD) to the tune of $567 million and could filter through to other companies as well.

  • In the movie Sling Blade actor Billy Bob Thornton - in an attempt to make his character Karl Childers walk in a more awkward manner -- put crushed glass in his shoes.

  • The breadth has improved nicely (better in the S's) and is somewhat 'sticky' during the downside tests. That, in a vacuum, is bullish.

  • At the beginning of Prohibition, there was such confidence that alcohol was the cause of virtually all crime, a number of towns actually sold their jails. In an isolated series of events, we've seen a fair amount of puts being sold today in the marketplace.

  • The Minx is trying to squirt and spurt through initial resistance. If it does, S&P 1150 and NDX 1515 will move into the near-term cross hairs.

  • Chatter of "push outs" in the semiconductor space were making the rounds this morning. I am not involved (and can't confirm) but it was 'out there.'

  • American International Group (AIG:NYSE), Coca Cola (KO:NYSE), Fox Entertainment (FOX:NYSE) and Hercules, Hercules, Hercules (HPC:NYSE) report tomorrow morning.

  • Flow's Diner: We just saw a customer selling 1,500,000 XLF (financial spiders).

  • Europe is now hugging either side of the flat line.

  • VXO 18 (volatility index) once again quelled the fear smear (currently 15.80). This is a level that should remain on our radars.

  • Ever see Liar Liar with Jim Carey? Wouldn't it be awesome if Elmer's child made the same wish tonight? Think about it--this could be one of the funniest Randoms ever!

  • The XBD (broker/dealer index) is down in the face of a massive Merrill buyback (MER:NYSE).

  • Tatanka!

  • The conference call jugglefest continues--and will through next week's launch--so thanks in advance for understanding. We're still shooting for Tuesday but Thursday may be the more realistic date. Stay tuned--the critters are workin' their tails off (bad image) and it's always better to do something right rather than quick.

  • Retail (still crowded on the short side) is taking a breather after a few days of jig.

  • Every trader is now staring at the same levels. Ya think?

  • Define your horizon--either price or time--before initiating risk.

  • From Minyan Ronald Sen: Trading lately reminds me of the scene in 'Butch Cassidy & the Sundance Kid' where Butch is in the knife fight and wants to discuss the rules. His opponent says, 'Rules in a knife fight?', whereupon Butch kicks him in the groin. 1,2,3 Go...

  • Breadth...
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