The Gel Smell
Patience brings price!
Oh man! How'd you get the beans above the frank?
--Charlie Jensen, There's Something About Mary
Ted Stroehmann just spun by Minyanville (sans Mary) to catch up on old times and ask if the Minx is gonna open a can of whoop-ass on him. Hey bro, it's good to see ya! Let's ask the critters what they're seeing out there but please be courteous--those goofy bastards are all I've got!
The flow continues to be dominated by the hedgies and the futes are jumpin' around faster than Warren on a handful of speed. With that said, Hoofy notes that the lunch crunch alleviated the uber-short term overbought condition (caused by the quick spike) and, as we've yet to roll over, that could be a recipe for squeezage. While there's resistance above and risk below, the question remains: have the bears have gotten too comfortable shorting rallies?
While I'm currently dancing in my metaphorical bull costume, I have no interest in being a poster boy for the bulls. This schnitzel is a trade, pure and simple, and I've yet to decide if I want to go home dressed. Again, my dilemma is one of timing and risk management--my indicators are lining up but they're not yet compelling. As such, I want to make sure that my risk profile is an extension of my thought process while erring to the side of caution.
The macro tells continue to support the cameo--crude is down, the dollar holds it's gains and gold is getting smoked. Still, there's plenty to be concerned about--including things we can't see--and I want to make sure that the mechanics of my swing are consistent with my stated methodology. In other words, is there an adequate edge in keeping overnight exposure?
We don't have to make that decision...yet. The breadth concerns me but I'm gonna stick with Hoofs for the time being. It's a judgment call, really, and I wanna see how the next hour plays out. Thanks for being patient with me...this head cold is kicking me arse!
Good luck...and make Mary proud!
Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at firstname.lastname@example.org.
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