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The Dating Game


If a broken clock is right twice a day, a timid tortoise will have his time to shine!


I broke a thousand hearts
Before I met you
I'll break a thousand more, baby
Before I am through

(George Throroughgood)

It's an active morning in Minyanville and, as usual, I've been scanning the landscape for potential data points. In the middle of my morning routine, Hoofy, feeling a tad jilted of late, pranced into my office and pointed at the (gasp!) green futures and firm European bourses. He wanted to know if this the start of something beautiful or if, once again, he's gonna be dumped by the bitter critters.

I told our resident bovine that all's fair in love and war and if he's angry, he shouldn't blame the players--he should blame the game! The rivalry between bulls and bears, fear and greed, analysts and traders...these are as old as Wall Street itself. If we're to prosper, we've got to understand the risks of a relationship before we agree to dance with the Minx.

News flow this morning is relatively light. Deutsche Bank is pushing EBAY, Solly upped MEL (just remember--you're a Mellon!), the mighty Bear is pounding the table on WFC, my old colleague, Tom McManus (at BankAmerica) is raising his recommended equity exposure to 75% from 70%, Goldman booted COH off the recommended list, German Industrial Production had it's biggest declined in four years and Merrill cut numbers (big) in Munich Re.

In level land, S&P 826 (last week's low) is marginal support on the downside while S&P 840 (the most recent break) is the first resistance. In four-letter land, NDX 950 is the first support while NDX 1000ish is trendline resistance. Other resistance levels of note are BKX 725 and SOX 280, if and when.

In addition to my daily duck hunting, I'll be watching the diner for flow, Alice. The gorillas haven't been in our midst in quite some time and IF they emerge (either way), it will be telling. We remain oversold in the near-term (and susceptible to a bungee) but, as it stands, that's the only discernable upside catalyst.

I walked into the office naked (sans a costume) and will once again be looking to read the tea leaves when we're open for action. Incumbent in our stated (tactical) style is the understanding that we must remove performance anxiety--and emotion in general--from our decision making process. There will be numerous trading moves in the weeks ahead. We just need to make sure we have a high win percentage on the one's we choose to play.

See you after the opening. Hit 'em hard, cookie.

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