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The Dating Game

By

If a broken clock is right twice a day, a timid tortoise will have his time to shine!

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I broke a thousand hearts
Before I met you
I'll break a thousand more, baby
Before I am through


(George Throroughgood)

It's an active morning in Minyanville and, as usual, I've been scanning the landscape for potential data points. In the middle of my morning routine, Hoofy, feeling a tad jilted of late, pranced into my office and pointed at the (gasp!) green futures and firm European bourses. He wanted to know if this the start of something beautiful or if, once again, he's gonna be dumped by the bitter critters.

I told our resident bovine that all's fair in love and war and if he's angry, he shouldn't blame the players--he should blame the game! The rivalry between bulls and bears, fear and greed, analysts and traders...these are as old as Wall Street itself. If we're to prosper, we've got to understand the risks of a relationship before we agree to dance with the Minx.

News flow this morning is relatively light. Deutsche Bank is pushing EBAY, Solly upped MEL (just remember--you're a Mellon!), the mighty Bear is pounding the table on WFC, my old colleague, Tom McManus (at BankAmerica) is raising his recommended equity exposure to 75% from 70%, Goldman booted COH off the recommended list, German Industrial Production had it's biggest declined in four years and Merrill cut numbers (big) in Munich Re.

In level land, S&P 826 (last week's low) is marginal support on the downside while S&P 840 (the most recent break) is the first resistance. In four-letter land, NDX 950 is the first support while NDX 1000ish is trendline resistance. Other resistance levels of note are BKX 725 and SOX 280, if and when.

In addition to my daily duck hunting, I'll be watching the diner for flow, Alice. The gorillas haven't been in our midst in quite some time and IF they emerge (either way), it will be telling. We remain oversold in the near-term (and susceptible to a bungee) but, as it stands, that's the only discernable upside catalyst.

I walked into the office naked (sans a costume) and will once again be looking to read the tea leaves when we're open for action. Incumbent in our stated (tactical) style is the understanding that we must remove performance anxiety--and emotion in general--from our decision making process. There will be numerous trading moves in the weeks ahead. We just need to make sure we have a high win percentage on the one's we choose to play.

See you after the opening. Hit 'em hard, cookie.

No positions in stocks mentioned.

Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at todd@minyanville.com.

The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.

Copyright 2011 Minyanville Media, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

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