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Random Thoughts


A real tug-o-war is emerging betwen Citigroup and JP Morgan.

  • This might help explain why the short side is so tough.

  • Professor Miller Buzzed earlier that pharma and biotech could see some jig on the heels of the State of the Union . Keep an eye on these puppies.

  • See the early shrugg in Yahoo! (YHOO) and remember the gap above ($36-$40).

  • While I was sticking corks on my forks yesterday, my silver sales don't seem as bad with Mines Mgmt (MGN) off 8% amd Silver Standard (SSRI) 2% lower. A Minyan pinged and asked why I didn't short 'em. Simple. I wanna buy dips in energy and metals and sell blips in tech and financials. The scale and scope is a function of time and price.

  • Do you hear that? (It's the world's smallest violin).

  • "A quick nugget: For the SP 500, the last day of January finished lower just 9 of the past 30 years. If we look at the first day of February for just those 9 years, the index closed higher 8 of 9 by an average +.41%." Professor Jason Roney on today's Buzz.

  • Mini-Minyan (non-financial) mailbag: "Toddo, as you remember, two years ago I told you that my dad (a huge Raiders fan) was in the hospital and you had your buddy Marcus Allen call him and it totally lifted his spirits? I was at the Laker game last night and saw Marcus--I thanked him personally as it really meant a lot to me and my dad. He was a class act and sends his regards your way. Thanks again, my friend, little things like that go a long way."

  • Front month Google (GOOG) options lost more girth than Star Jones. That's the risk when paying fat vols.

  • Keep an eye on BKX 102.60 (the bottom of the January 26 opening gap).

  • I'll lay 3:1 that this writer isn't from NYC.

  • Snapper is putting all of his mojo in Google (GOOG). We knew he would, we just gotta see how much moxie he's got.

  • "If it feels like there is more activity in the equity market over the past couple weeks, you are right. As of Tuesday's close, the 10-day moving average of volume on the NYSE remained over 1.7 billion shares for eleven straight days. While volume has been trending higher over time, we found that there have only been 6 other instances where the 10-day average even reached 1.7 billion - and all but one was quickly followed by higher S&P 500 prices. After each initial occurrence of the 10-day average reaching 1.7 billion shares, the S&P 500 was up an average of 11.37% within 3 months. The average of the 3 occurrences since '03 is 7.07%." Snoop Tony Dwyer of FTN Midwest Securities

  • When in doubt, sit it out (or trade "in between")

  • Amgen (+6%) is having a decent year today.

  • Oh to live on, Brokeback Mountain.

  • S's over N's.

  • I sure hope Elmer makes some friends at Del Boca Vista.

  • Tape Talk! (11:02)

    The Hump Day Minx continues to slink as traders trade and critters think. "Hands over eyes," the relative traction in the face of the Gurgle is a win for the Matador Crowd. We spoke about their wish for a "rolling rotation" vs. an "outright migration" but, heck, we're barely seeing the rotation in the nets (Yahoo! is green).

    Indeed, with the exception of a few select sectors (homies and metals down, pharma up), this is the definition of anticlimactic We're seeing some movement in the macro universe but nothing eye-popping as of yet. It's still early, I know, so I'm staying on my toes as I tend to business at MVHQ.

    Do I have a real feel? Not particularly (always honest) although I'm content to hang onto my gamma ("V" shaped risk profile) and nibble and tuck when I sniff the ducks. I've still got some piggy puts and select tech (note SunW up another 3%) but I'm not diggin' in, per se, as risk for risk's sake is a recipe for losses.

  • The dollar is higher this morning as it casts an eye toward the important DXY 89.60 level. And, while it hasn't come to fruition yet, I continue to believe that either the greenback must devalue if asset classes reflate.

  • The weekly Investor's Intelligence survey shows a decrease in bullish sentiment to 52.6% from 53.7% prior, while bearish sentiment increased to 25.8% from 25.3.

  • "The big news Wednesday is likely to be the multi-point gap in Google shares from their earnings miss. It is very unusual that a name will deteriorate with such urgency and make a major top in "v-like" fashion. With an ascending 50-day and 200-day moving average, we suspect that a bounce will ensue, but the damage from this point forward is likely to weigh on the performance of the name as supply will be heavier over the next several months." Lehman sage Jeff DeGraaf


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Positions in financials, SUNW, JPM
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