Uber-Quick Vibes into the Bell
May peace be with you!
I've been jammed like a jar of Smucker's but wanted to share some of the highlights on today's Buzz. At the risk of sounding like a shill, I will offer that the Buzz & Banter desktop application is the gateway to the Minyanville experience (it is to the 'Ville what instant message is to America Online). Alas, I'm a trader--not a salesman--so I will shush up and scribe some vibe:
- Google (GOOG) is the obvious highlight tonight with Elmer's text and Dubya next.
- One day we'll have to do a study on the legitimacy of contra-hour.
- Crude gettin' smacked for a deuce (2.25%).
- I understand that there were a LOT of bad apples in the bubble tree but nobody asked questions when the screens were green. I'm all for pulling out the worms but we can't paint the whole industry guilty.
- "Technical update: we are right at the levels that must hold for the immediately bearish third wave down scenario to remain dominant. We said in our pieces that prices cannot go above the peaks from Jan 19th and they have yet to do that but they are right at the 78.6% retrace of the decline from the 19th peaks so it's now or never for the bearish case. All of the necessary pieces are in place for a potentially serious decline here but alas it's price that ultimately matters, and above the peaks from the 19th makes those 'necessary pieces' moot. We remain bearish against the peaks from the 19th." Scotto Reamer on the Buzz.
- S's over N's today and the overall action (thus far) is constructive. If Google poops, however, today's slippage in the net space and the non-confirmation of NASDAQ internals will be "obvious tells" with the benefit of hindsight.
- Super Sunday Minyanfest at ONE Little West 12th Street BUT Meehan is blowing it off. Feel free to ping him and complain.
- Utes and market peaks: Toddo mentioned a stat that Utilities tend to peak about three months ahead of "the market". I generally agree...from the studies I have done, the average lead time was 97 days. However, there are exceptions. The S&P 500 peaked before Utes in 1976, 1980, 1983 and, most egregiously, 2000. Utilities were making new all-time highs in December 2000 even while the broader market was well into the bear market. I think watching some of these "canary in a coalmine" stocks or averages can be useful at times, but we should be wary of the exceptions and always be alert for changing cycles. --Prof Jason Goepfert.
- Contra-hour strikes again.
- "The recent correction forces us to check our thesis points. We find no reason to change our 1330+ target for the S&P 500." Snoop Tony Dwyer of FTN Midwest Research.
- Are you rooting your positions? That's a huge red flag. Save the pom pom's for Sunday.
- If your Buzz blinks, hit the F5 button to refresh.
- Is this a new paradigm for Vols? I agree that they aren't an absolute read on fear levels but I maintain that they're painting a fragile backdrop for equities. They won't trigger a decline but they most certainly will exacerbate one if there is causation.
Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at firstname.lastname@example.org.
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