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Point & Go Figure: Gold, CRB Index, IBM, INTC, AMD, Major Index Overview



This year-end run in gold looks quite similar to the year-run in 2004. Meanwhile, the initial price objective of 498 (basis 4x3 chart) has been met and exceeded.

Reuters Jefferies CRB Index (CR/Y)

International Business Machines (IBM)

Intel Corporation (INTC)

had seemingly everything in its favor after breaking a triple top on a point and figure basis when measured vs. the SOX index in October 2003. It reversed down on April 2, 2004, however, and since that time is down 8.6% compared to the SOX, which is down 4.9%, and AMD which is up 47%. The question now is why in the world does anybody still own this stock? Relative strength matters.

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)

actually gave a triple top buy signal vs. the SOX on Sep. 5, 2003, and on August 17 this year formed a higher bottom and reversed up to Xs vs. the SOX.

Major Index Overview

New Zealand 50 Index (Chart courtesy Thomson Financial)
The NZX50 triangle break continues lower and is nearing a daily TD-Sequential 13 within the context of a larger negative trend. This index was a leader to the upside in May. Now, it is breaking to the downside. Hmmm.

Russell 2000 Index (RUT)
Meanwhile, no matter what happens in the rest of the market, the Russell 2000 Index seems to only go up. Yesterday, while the Dow and SPX finished lower, the RUT closed higher on the day and on a point and figure basis reversed up in a column of Xs and formed higher bottom. A move below 680 would be a sell signal, and failure here would certainly raise some eyebrows.

If you would like a chart reviewed, let me know here.

I have added text and illustrations to the charts where necessary.

Point and figure charts courtesy Dorsey, Wright & Associates.

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Position in Gold, IBM

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