Note: the following analysis is formulated as an assimilation of Fibonacci, DeMark, Elliott Wave and other technical indicators. It is offered as education and not intended as advice in any way.
The gaps down this AM, particularly in those indices/stocks where the most speculation (read: liquidity) has been seated like the Semis and the NDX, is heartening for the emerging bearish case. Most importantly, as you can see on the short term (5 -15 min) charts, a "5" wave move down from the peaks registered last week is underway, which signals a trend change of at least one larger degree (scale).
Though more technical data will need to be seen to increase the comfort with a longer term bearish call, this action at least is supportive of a very important peak having been registered. When coupled with the DeMark trend exhaustion indicators last week, the Fibonacci SPX 1195-1205 area being tagged we highlighted on November 5th, and the all-time record sentiment extremes we have seen, all the 'right' conditions are in place for the return of the secular bear market. Stay tuned, the bear case is finally starting to get at least interesting.
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