A Minxy Melody
If these levels don't hold, we'll see how many traders truly believe in the long side!
It's alright if you love me
It's alright if you don't
I'm not afraid of you running away honey,
I've got this feeling you won't
It's a bright, crisp morning in Minyanville and the critters are hustling their way through the crowded streets. The buzz overheard at the coffee shop is centering on the White House appointments and traders seem to be letting out a collective sigh-as well as some futures! Again, the speculation on who would fill these two posts dominated the chatter on Friday as optimists wanted to believe that Wall Street friendly successors would bode well for a feisty stimulus package. Now, as the names to those faces are starting to appear, it looks like some of the bulls have lost their mojo. Hey Francis...the market hasn't even opened yet!
On the all-important technical front, we've spoken ad naseum about our current support zones and I don't want to beat a dead, uh, topic. We know that critical levels are rarely broken the first try (the NDX 1050 zone held seven times before breaking out) and, as such, we should appreciate the potential for Hoofy to toe that line on the downside. Also, and in the interest of following up, I want to note that our trusty stochastics (which offered sell signals entering last week) are still pointing south although they're much closer to a neutral reading now.
Our guides today will once again focus on the financials (BKX, XBD) and the semiconductors (SOX November breakout was from levels in and around here). Pay particular attention to MU as a sentiment gauge in tech as this stock led the semis higher during the rally and is dangerously close to breaking its November lows. Peripheral guides will include Software (Morgan downgraded enterprise software), bonds (alligators watch), the Cyclicals (CYC 450 is an important level) and our twisty internals.
We spoke last week of the rubber meeting the road and the tread marks will continue in full force today. I'll be keeping an ear to the ground in conference land for and if I pick up any discernable tones, I'll be sure to pass them along. In the meantime, the crosscurrents continue and I will once again reiterate the need to maintain your discipline and define your horizon/risk profile. It's not necessary to play every trade-it's only necessary to have a high win percentage on the trades you choose to make. Saucy!
I'm going to toss my other lid back on and prep myself for the day ahead but, before I go, I gotta respond to the avalanche of mail I got over the weekend. Yes, I see the job Michael Vick has done in Atlanta and yes, I agree that Priest Holmes is a horse. Still, Rich Gannon may set the all-time record for passing yards in a season and, if he does, he's your MVP. Period.
I'll see you after the opening. Play like a Raider today!
Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at firstname.lastname@example.org.
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