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Random Thoughts

By

Keep an eye on Google as it's trying to turn sentiment.

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  • T-Minus five hours till we fire up the philanthropic mojo!

  • Gold? Yes Please!

  • Is there such a thing as bellwethers anymore? Back in the day, we used to talk of the four horsemen--Intel (INTC), Cisco (CSCO), Dell (DELL) and Microsoft (MSFT). These days, they just seem to be over-owned proxies of promises past. I opined last year that energy and metals would be the relative leaders of the new market dynamic. I continue to feel that way although, as is my nature, I tend to nose scrunch when too many folks think the same way. Still, and as you know, energy has a long way to go before it's top dawg in the S&P, an eventual and unavoidable morphage in my opinion.

  • Minyan Steve Shobin will be joining John and I at tonight's Succofest as we welcome Minyan Stephen Haughey from Sveden. It is unclear, at this time, who will bring the Lederhosen.

  • "The AMEX Gold Bug Index (HUI) is up 3% today, breaking a new double top. Meanwhile, the point and figure price count for the HUI is to 332. So far we are not seeing any potential DeMark TD-Sequential indicator flies in the ointment." -- Pepe Depew

  • Honeydews and You.

  • Keep an eye on HGX 510, if and when, as it's an important zone for the homies.

  • And the word spreads...

  • Why are there several words that we always seem to misspell regardless of how many times we correct ourselves?

  • RAT!

  • White Lights R' Us! We're channeling some mojo to Minyan Rob Fraim today.

  • "The dreaded intra-day reversal strikes fear into the minds of traders and market observers as prices fail to hold the day's advance. There is little question that such price action is indicative of a market that has grown tired, but in fairness, there are differing degrees of failure. Dismissing or excusing negative price action is dangerous, and that is not our intention. We are, instead, attempting to frame it within a context, and that frame to us, while negative, is far from disastrous. In our minds, yesterday's price action was a piece of negative evidence, but it was not distributive (by our definition), nor was it climactic. Therefore, keep the course, but add a smidge of caution and defensiveness to your trading and decisions." -- Lehman chartist Jeff DeGraaf

  • Lest we forget, Texas Instruments (TXN) tells their tale in tonight's mid-quarter update.

  • Google (GOOG) gurgled to $400 and snapped back like a woman scorned.

  • This one hits a bit too close to home.

  • "General Motors (GM) stock price is trading roughly for cash: the company has around $24 in cash if you consider GMAC has value. They have $15 outright per share in cash. That also assumes they will just roll their debt and not pay any off. In other words, the market is assigning no real value to the company as an ongoing entity. It is not trading off its income statement; it is trading off of its balance sheet. The biggest trade (perhaps that I have seen in my career) are hedge funds long the bonds and long puts. The retention value to bond holders in bankruptcy is pretty high and the puts act as a kicker for a zero stock price. But they are still paying a high price for this bankruptcy protection because of timing. The longer GM stays afloat, the lower bondholders' retention value goes as the company burns through that cash." -- John Succo on today's Buzz (position in GM)

  • Don't guess, Meat, just trade.

    R.P.
position in metal equities

Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at todd@minyanville.com.

The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.

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