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Random Thoughts

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Rolling stops, proactive patience and steadfast discipline should be common denominators of any holiday shopping list.

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  • Let's say you owned 50,000 shares of a stock and cut it in half as a function of discipline. The next day, it gets taken over for a big premium. Would you be happy that you owned 25,000 shares or bummed that you sold 25,000 shares? How you answer that question will tell you a lot about your mental approach to trading.

  • I get the whole "news is worst at the bottom and best at the top" thing. The market, as we know, is a discounting mechanism. I find it interesting, however, that the homies were pushed this morning as the negative data points continue to mount.

  • Check this out. It gives new meaning to the "Mile High Club."

  • "It bears reminding that in the spring...when the yen carry came under brief attack...the global market reverberations weren't felt immediately. The yen started to rally on April 12th and it wasn't until a month later (May 10th) that global markets began to suffer acute 'liquidity withdrawal.'" Stephanie Pomboy on yesterday's Buzz.

  • I speak to alotta hedgies and while some of them are having stellar years, the majority of them are gripped with fear. Fear of underperforming. Fear of losing assets. Fear of losing face. Fear of losing that second, third or fourth home. I even know a couple that fear losing their funds.

  • Chatter is flying that Deere (+2%) is gonna be the next private equity takeout. We talked about this "euphoria" on Friday.

  • If Steve Galbraith is right and a failed LBO ends the party, it'll be some time before we get there (it has to happen before it fails).

  • Remember, market breadth and financials are the "one two" tell punch.

  • It's not about making every trade. It's about winning on the trades you make.

  • "When Titans can beat the Giants and Colts in successive weeks, you know for sure that the league has attained parity (how boring), which means that in order to get to the Super Bowl, all you need is one more parity than the other teams, and one less injury. Word to the NFL owners: Parity, watch out what you wish for." Minyan Steve Shobin.

  • We've discussed alotta dynamics and imbalances this past year. We've touched on the FOMC toggle, asset class reflation, dollar devaluation, sector rotation, globalization, isolation--heck, it's enough to make Bono blush! And the end of the day--or year, as the case may be--that takes a back seat to one thing: psychology. That doesn't render those concerns obsolete, obviously, but it's worth noting as we saddle up for the home stretch.

  • Rolling stops, proactive patience and steadfast discipline should be common denominators of any holiday shopping list.

  • Minyan Ron Sen recently noted that there were 82% of stocks above their 40-day moving average coming into today, an extraordinarily high reading, and similar to something John Roque pointed out on Friday noting that there are a number of key elements in place supporting a potential correction.

  • One day soon, you'll soon see "why."


R.P.

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