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Random Thoughts


Everything is cyclical, right down to our mood and mojo.

  • From 40,000 feet, the tape feels digestive as it attempts to cement S&P 1407 as a newfound floor. And, as long as the internals remain strong (as they are) year-end players seem willing to forgive the potential fly that is the lack of volume.

  • Everything is cyclical, right down to our mood and mojo.

  • Remember, there are three realms to real estate-the homebuilders, real estate itself and land. Each has its own distinct merits and risk.

  • Those looking to double dip their chips, please remember that Texan and AMD will offer their mid-quarter update next week.

  • Alright, I admit it-I'm a Grey's Anatomy junkie.

  • Rotation, eh? We saw a big asset allocation yesterday out of the FTSE and into Canada.

  • I asked yesterday what the Santa "Clause" might be. What, pray tell, will shift the ever-present and seemingly growing performance anxiety? I don't "know" but, as you know, I'm watching the financials and breadth as a daily duopoly for guidance.

  • Looking at Toll Brothers and the homebuilders, Professor Bennet Sedacca suggests that "they eventually resume the post bubble move. See that ugly chart here comparing TOL to Intel (INTC) during the tech bubble."

  • Turnaround? Well, it is Tuesday, which is notorious for two things--reversals and counter-trend action. Stay alert.

  • Silk, Jeffrey, Silk.

  • We continue to see sellers of volatility as fund managers dig for stems and seeds of relative performance. The compression is astounding.

  • I pared some financial puts yesterday (discipline) and remain relatively light and balanced. I still sense that locking in these levels of volatility will prove to be profitable but I'm not outsized by any stretch. And I'm not outstretched by any size.

  • Looking for a proxy for risk tolerance? Brazil, which we flagged yesterday as it tickled fresh acne, has officially broken out.

  • Minyan Mailbags

    • Toddo,

      Long time subscriber on MV. I wanted to get your perspective on SUNW. I recall both of you were quite bullish on it at one point several months ago. The stock seems to have really come back since August.

      Minyan Jay


      This was one of my long-term holdings that I pared a few months back. I know that the reasons President Fish stated for liking the name remain very much in play and, technically, the stock appears poised for fresh acne at multi-year highs.


    • Toddo!

      What's up my friend? When are you going to learn? Last time you disrespected the Gators, you lost our bet on the Final Four and National Championship. Do you have to learn another lesson? Here's the wager: $250 to Ruby Peck Foundation from me if OSU wins the National Championship. If the Gators win, you apologize on the site and vow to never disrespect the Gators again and you include one random thought per day for 10 straight trading days some praise of the University of Florida. I realize that OSU will be big favorites, but I'm staying with my Gators. You in? I hope that you are doing great!

      Cheers, Minyan Charlie

      Minyan C-Gator,

      Done your way!

    • Toddo

      Hey man, congratulations on what looked like a huge success. We just finished building and launched our store website and it's kickin'. We would be happy to pass on 10% of proceeds to The Ruby Peck Foundation for any traffic/love from the Ville. Come on and ski sometime!

      Hope you're well brother.
      Minyan E-Knight

      M-Ski Night,

      Very kind of you-I'll ask that Minyans simply say "I'm a Minyan" when they contact you and look forward to any assistance in helping the kids. Happy trails, my friend.



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Position in financials, SUNW
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