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Random Thoughts


Do we get snow days?

  • Fleck takes on Fanron.

  • As I have two legs in my fur (50% conviction on the short side), you've gotta sense of my "broad feel" for the tape. If we trade higher through S&P 1275, I 'll lick my wound and step aside. If we slip lower, I'll look to roll down my stop and further define my risk.

  • "We have all been taught 'don't fight the Fed' over the years. Then there was the 'Fed model' that compares the forward P/E of the SPX versus the inverse of the 10 year Treasury yield (note the Fed model totally breaks down prior to 1982 and post-2000). One useful tool that has worked well since 1970 or so is the ratio of T-bill yields as a percentage of the yield of the S&P 500. Note that as stocks rise and dividend yields fall while T-bill yields rise, risks to stock prices increase dramatically. In 1973, the ratio touched 2.7x, in 1981 it hit 3.2x, in 1987 it peaked at 2.5x, 2.7x in 1990 and is currently close to 2.4x. I do not lend much credence to the 5x reached in the silly season of the bubble peak of 1999-2000. What does this mean? Either stock dividends need to increase dramatically soon, T-bill yields need to stop rising or we need to put those battle helmets on-particularly with the universal giddiness that has returned to the Street. These sorts of relationships really are what make markets, over and over and over again. And for those of you who have been around long enough to know, dividend yields do matter. In fact, they have contributed for roughly half of the return of stocks over the last century." -- Bennet Sedacca on today's Buzz.

  • And I thought sleep eating was bad...

  • The critters stood up and stood out on page 14 of this week's edition of BusinessWeek. Maybe I'm biased, but I thought they stole the show with their metaphorical bravado.

  • The earlier exchange between Minyan Michael Santoli and Professor Vitaliy Katsenelson is the epitomy of the Minyan network.

  • XAU 115 is a level to watch as the metal equities once again underwhelm in the face of multi-year highs for the underlying commodities.

  • With a Jewish six inches (four real inches) expected to dump in NYC tonight, I'm already hearing from a few traders that they're looking to pull out of their turrets early. That may impact liquidity later so lets keep it on your radars as we edge into the fresh five.

  • Tom McManus of BankAmerica--a fellow I happen to respect--upped his 12-month S&P price target from 1275 to 1335 (although the average PE of 18X seems full to my friend).

  • "The call for this week: Warren Buffett has remarked, "Investing is not a game where a guy with the 160 IQ beats the guy with the 130 IQ. Once you have ordinary intelligence, what you need is the temperament to control the urges that get other people into trouble in investing." Manifestly, our temperament suggests that the time to be aggressively bullish was seven weeks ago, not now..." Uber-Minyan Jeff Saut of Raymond James in his always excellent weekly missive.

  • Knock knock. who's there? Ach...

  • Our snazzy all-star guitar auction is set to begin in two short days. The critters are dusting off their paddles and we're hopeful that we'll raise alotta coin for some very worthy causes!

  • Why are they called apartments when they are all stuck together?

  • We often talk about the erosion of the middle class and the evolution of a two-prong society comprised of 'haves' and 'have nots.' The former, with all their jingle, will skew the stats of the aggregate economic readings but mark my words---for those who aren't circled, it will feel very much like a depression. I know, it's a little Debbie Downer on a Monday but it's important that we remain mindful of the dynamic.

  • I saw Avenue Q this weekend. Would I recommend it? Yup.

  • As if Boo doesn't have enough to worry about!

  • "Based on a 1x3 point & figure chart, NYMEX Crude recently tested a spread triple bottom support area at 57 and will reverse up with a print of 60, which should take place today. Meanwhile, the 1x3 Crude continuous chart suggests near-term potential to 64-65." -- Pepe Depew on today's Buzz.

  • Cheer up Minyans, Mercury Retrograde ended yesterday. That's good news for us all.

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